Ballotage in France: the duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen is defined in a climate marked by social discontent

Second leg between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. The French decide in a duel already present during the previous presidential election. A day, which in addition to France's upcoming destination, reflects the social moodiness that is replicated within Western democracies. The results will have an impact on the French project, but also on the future of the European alliance.

Almost 49 million qualified people are called to vote this Sunday to define who will be in charge of the presidency of the Republic for the next five years. Two proposals: to renew the mandate of the centrist and current head of state or to bring to the first judiciary the leader of the far-right party, National Group (RN).

In polling stations, open from 8 a.m. across the country, 15 days after the first round, the road map that the French will present for the country will begin to be unveiled, following a campaign particularly affected by the crises of these times. From Covid-19 to the war in Ukraine. On the one hand, both could consolidate the central base of the outgoing head of state. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen could capitalize on the fears of a popular France that has not achieved empathy with the politics and personality of Emmanuel Macron. My fellow citizens mainly affected by the consequences of a world in conflict.

Emmanuel Macron, 44, is seeking re-election to the presidency of the Fifth Republic by universal suffrage on the fringes of coexistence. Former investment banker, former economy minister of socialist François Hollande, became the youngest president of the Republic in 2017, at the age of just 39. Marine Le Pen, a 53-year-old lawyer, is going for her third candidacy at the Elysee Palace and hopes this time to transform the contest into a triumph. Long elected to the European Parliament, the far-right opponent is now a member of Pas-de-Calais.

Regardless of what the polls say, once the tables are closed, 19 hours in most of the country and 20 hours in the big cities, the election repeats the social discontent of the first round. A skeptical society that does not expect improvement. A bad mood present within Western democracies, especially in the most vulnerable sectors. And even if the polls advance Macron's triumph, the far right arrives narrowed the margins like never before.

The opponents, despite the numbers they achieve, will face another challenge: the mismatch between citizens and politics. The participation rate will be the other significant figure for this Sunday. A possible significant abstention will illustrate this mistrust. Whatever the margin of the winner, the election does not grant the extended will of society, but of a portion of it. The president will arrive at the Elysee Palace with more than 60% of the voters who chose to vote in the first round for other candidates. But also with an absenteeism that can reach 25%. T odo constitutes a base of electoral orphans unable to channel their aspirations into the current system.

In continental terms, the results can also be a cataclysm for the common European project. A victory for the far right, that is to say Le Pen, would bring political radicalisation, at least after the Second World War, to the power of a country cradle of liberal democracies, a founding nation of the European Union and central actor in world deliberations. With the history of Brexit, a Germany without Angela Merkel and a war on its own soil, an ultra-nationalist president, a friend of autocrats like Vladimir Putin or Viktor Orban, would reach one of the core members of community building.

The second round, and then?

After the results of tonight's first interim results, the winner will be known, unless the difference is extremely small.

The Ministry of the Interior will report the final results in the next few hours, probably on Monday, April 25. They will be formalized by the Constitutional Council on Wednesday, April 27, and published in the Official Gazette the following day.

Tonight, two scenarios are possible. In the event of a victory for Marine Le Pen, the Head of State and his successor must agree on the date of the investiture ceremony, which must take place before 13 May. It usually follows a well-established protocol: transfer of powers, delivery of the great necklace of the Order, speech by the president-elect, military honors, among the most outstanding.

The new tenant of the Elysee will then be able to appoint “very quickly” a Prime Minister, either on the same day or the next day. He will be responsible for forming a government as soon as possible.

In the event of Emmanuel Macron's re-election, the formalities of possession are considerably reduced. The current president, if re-elected, will have the possibility of appointing his prime minister without even waiting for the ceremony or the proclamation of the results, but he can also decide to wait a few days.

Once the government is formed, transfers of power will take place in the various ministries. Unsurprisingly, he will then officiate until the legislative elections, scheduled for June 12 and 19, at the end of which it is likely that there will be a new political conformation in the government and the country. Another challenge.

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