Saturday reservation, electoral ban. Starting at midnight last Friday, the two candidates fighting for the presidency of France stopped their campaigns to give the almost 49 million French, who are eligible to vote, a day without proselytism or promises about the five-year period that will ensue. Amidst some anger and frustration, those who mobilize on Sunday will do so mostly between two candidates who disapprove.
63% of the voters who voted in the first round did not choose either Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen. Therefore, those who decide to do it tomorrow will do so self-realizing that the results will not bring about the changes they want. Many of them will arrive just to prevent the country from falling apart.
I fear that a victory by the far-right leader, Marine Le Pen, in the second round, will cause a shift towards a model marked by ultra-nationalism, isolation or violence towards minorities, a point that would not solve the economic, social, political, and geopolitical crises that the country and the European project are going through.
In this context, the centrist, Emmanuel Macron, consolidates his place as the favorite of this second “tour” in front of the leader of the National Group (RN). In the latest OpinionWay-KEA Partners poll for the French newspaper Les Echos, published this Friday, the outgoing president scored 1 point again and would win with 57% of the votes against his far-right opponent, with 43%
With these numbers, the performance of the current tenant of the Elysee Palace is the best since the end of March, after the gap narrowed to a score of 53% versus 47%, in favor of the outgoing president. Macron would stay that way with the round on Sunday 24, although the political horizon would be more hostile. The re-elected president would remain at the helm of a country where the far right accumulates almost half of the votes and, therefore, will be an even more fragmented nation. The situation is far from that in 2017 five years ago. The leader of The Republic on the Move (LRN) won 66.10% of the vote, compared to 33.9% for Le Pen: a difference of 10 percentage points.
The other challenge that opens up: how to govern a country with a growing number of frustrated Frenchmen, orphans of the political system. Sunday's turnout is projected to be between 71.5 per cent and 75.5 per cent, an average figure of 73.5 per cent, compared to 74.5 per cent in the second round of 2017.
In addition, part of the left-wing electorate could be absent. The votes of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's electors in favor of Mr Macron are estimated at 41%, but 38% of them would abstain and 21% would even vote for Marine Le Pen. Among the communists, they would be 43% in favor of the outgoing president, 44% for abstention and 13% to vote for the far-right candidate. Therefore, there are margins for uncertainty.
Another risk is that the aspirant to renew does not mobilize his own troops. Presented as a winner, with certain advantages after the television duel and the last minute forecasts, the fear is that part of his followers will not see the need to attend. Absenteeism, white or no vote, general demotivation, constitute the main unknown of the elections of April 24.
When polling stations are less than 24 hours away, the French debate or reflect on an election, which, although it does not encourage them, can define two competing country projects. On Sunday, it will determine both the person who will preside over France for the next five years, the institutional framework for facing the pending challenges of a boiling democracy, but also between two people who can show two totally opposite sides of the same France.
Tomorrow's vote will mark the paths to resolve from inequalities, the fall in purchasing power, the way out of the health crisis, to the way the country will respond to a war on European soil. Although skeptical, the French know about the coming storms. The economic, social and geopolitical crises, as well as a climate agenda, situations that will face and, at a certain point, will corner them.
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