What happens in the dispute with Nicaragua after the Hague ruling

Colombia's international policies with some countries are at their peak, the breakdown of relations and the recklessness of some dignitaries have questioned the peaceful environment of the nation, added to this is the debate over the historic ruling of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in relation to the dispute over territorial platform of San Andrés. Questions and theories arise on this subject about the eventuality of what may happen, as the possibilities of conversation begin to be reduced after what President Iván Duque said, who did not consider opening up a dialogue.

Infobae Colombia consulted with specialists on this situation, because despite the fact that differences arose since 2001, it was in 2012 that everything exploded and relations between the two countries began to fragment. This situation has been rejected by the Nicaraguan and Colombian governments, since there is no positive spirit that could determine a useful fruit for both.

The professor of International Relations at the Universidad del Rosario, Mauricio Jaramillo Jassir, explains that in this situation several scenarios arise, initially the country could continue to rely on the decree 1946 of 2013, which addresses the dynamics of the continental shelf of the island territories, in this case through the article 5, it is stated that there is a “contiguous area of island territories in the Western Caribbean Sea”, a fact that has eventually ignored the vitality of the fault exposed by The Hague.

Jaramillo emphasized: “Another option that arises; is for Colombia to recognize some authority on the part of Nicaragua in some waters that are still in dispute, Colombia mentioned eventually being able to suspend some patrols, although that cannot be done. But it should be noted that artisanal fishermen have freedom of navigation, including that Colombia seeks to achieve low cooperation with Nicaragua.”

For his part, Ricardo Abello Galvis, Professor of International Law at the Universidad del Rosario, explained that this process may already be completed, however, it could have a new face if the judgment is breached by either country. Abello summarized that Nicaragua could resume some legal remedies before the same International Court, determining the possibility of suing again and hoping that Colombia would avail itself of the conditions.

Another problem that still remains in a wide nebula has to do directly with the incursion of a vessel, whether military or fishing, considering that this was one of the areas of debate about the importance of the root communities in this area of the country. It is important to note that fishing becomes the axis of production of many islanders, since their maintenance and economy are tied to this activity.

According to Professor Abello, if any vessel or ship sails in the particular Exclusive Economic Zone of Nicaragua, there would be a violation of the established ruling, since it was the Court itself that sanctioned it; armed vessels would not be able to carry out this task, however, the picture changes minimally for traditional fishing, as opposed to this, Ricardo Abello explained: “what they are doing is that the fishing is returned to the sea, on the other hand, what can happen is that they eventually retain the vessel and take it to Nicaragua.”

Added to this premise is the concept of academician Mauricio Jaramillo, who points out that the raizales may suffer some consequences if the ruling is not respected. In contrast, he said: “If Nicaragua feels that Colombia is not respecting its waters or that there are patrols, unfortunately the raizales will suffer hostility. by the military force of that country, seeking to press for Colombia to negotiate”.

Jaramillo explained that the principle of good faith prevails within the freedom of navigability, that within private or private navigation. In the event that a military vessel sails its seas, there could be a protest motion and even several countries could support it, bearing in mind that maritime, land or air violation by any country has never been considered politically, a situation that would eventually benefit Nicaragua.

As these are two countries that have a diplomatic break, many inquire about the possibility of a possible belligerence being triggered in the territory, the two experts do not rule it out, however, they point out that a larger incident must arise for this, since first of all freedom of navigation is presumed without any secondary intention.

Jaramillo Jassir explained that currently the end of the war has been discredited due to the costs that it generates. He also stressed that regardless of the hostility that Nicaragua presents to the development of the policies of the Ortega leadership, this country retains legal recognition of the territories thanks to the same ruling of the Court, in response to this, pointed out: “even though diplomatic relations are at a very bad time, perhaps the worst in our history, litigation requires us to have a diplomatic link that the next Colombian government will surely have to re-establish, so I would think that the possibility would be very ruled out.”

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