Gustavo Petro would win both laps and would be the next president of Colombia, according to CNC poll

Exactly 37 days after the first presidential round in Colombia, the results of the most recent electoral poll by the National Consulting Center (CNC) for the Semana magazine, which does not leave a picture so different from that reflected by other studies: candidate Gustavo Petro would win the first and second rounds.

To the question of 'If the presidential elections were on Sunday and the candidates were the ones on the card, which one would you vote for? ' , 38.0% of respondents responded that by the candidate for the Historical Pact, followed by the candidate of the Coalition Team for Colombia, Federico 'Fico' Gutiérrez with 23.8%.

The regions that most supported Petro were Bogotá (47.3%), the Caribbean (49.7%) and the Colombian Pacific (52.7%), while Fico was supported with 40.6 percent by the citizens of Antioquia (where it originated and governed its capital), as well as in the Coffee Axis.

There are no major changes in terms of positions, except for oscillations in percentage. For example, as has happened in the last polls, in third place, with 9.6%, is the former mayor of Bucaramanga, Rodolfo Hernández.

Likewise, Sergio Fajardo, the presidential candidate of the Centro Esperanza Coalition, rigged himself in fourth place, as he again held that position with 7.2% in voting intention, as compiled by the CNC.

In the last positions are, again, Green Oxygen candidate Ingrid Betancourt, who tied percentage with Colombia Justa Libres senator John Milton Rodriguez. Both have 0.9% in intentionality.

For his part, the former mayor of Medellín Luis Pérez took 0.4%, who surpassed by a few tenths the candidate of the National Salvation Movement, Enrique Gómez, who according to the poll reached 0.3%.

Perhaps one of the aspects that most strikes the attention of the study in question is that, with 7.6%, the blank vote would win all candidates, except Petro, Fico and Hernández.

The National Consulting Center consulted citizens about a possible ballot between Gustavo Petro and two of the favorite candidates according to the polls.

The results showed that the leader of Human Colombia would win Fico again with 44.8% of the votes, surpassing the 36.9% that the former mayor of Medellín would win.

In the case that Petro will face Rodolfo Hernández in the second round, the latter would reach 34.1%, ten percentage points less than what would be won by the Senator of Human Colombia (44.1%).

Progressivism is facing: if the second round of elections were between Sergio Fajardo and the candidate for the Historical Pact, Gustavo Petro would win the candidate of the Esperanza Center with 43.4%, who would reach 35.8%, according to the CNC.

The most overwhelming picture in the second round would be that of Petro against Ingrid Betancourt. The first would have 46.9% and the second 23.2%.

The CNC also consulted where the votes of candidates who do not go to ballot would go. Those who get Rodolfo Hernández would go with Fico (40.2%) and with Petro (22.4%).

Those of Sergio Fajardo would add 58.5% to Gutiérrez, while the former mayor of Bogotá would add 18.0% to the former mayor of Bogotá. In contrast, if Fico does not pass the second round, his votes would give 59.9% to Rodolfo Hernández, while a scarce 8.1% would reach Petro.

The alleged victory of the Historical Pact is also reflected in its vice-presidential formula, given that lawyer and social leader Francia Márquez prevails with a 41.3% preference over Rodrigo Lara's 17.7% (Fico's formula); 6.5% for Marelen Castillo (Rodolfo's formula); 4.8% by Luis Gilberto Murillo (Fajardo's formula) and 1.6 per cent by Luis Esparza (Ingrid's formula).

Survey conducted by the National Consulting Center of “women and men over 18 years of age, residing in the municipalities of Colombia and intending to vote in the next presidential elections. As a mechanism of statistical stratification, 6 geographical regions were established as follows: (1) Antioquia +Coffee Region: Antioquia, Caldas, Quindio and Risaralda; (2) Bogotá: Bogotá D.C.; (3) Caribbean: Atlántico, Bolivar, Cesar, Córdoba, La Guajira, Magdalena, Sucre, San Andrés and Providencia; (4) Pacific: Cauca, Chocó, Nariño and Valle del Cauca; (5) Central: Boyacá, Cundinamarca, Norte de Santander, Santander, Arauca and Casanare; and (6) Central South: Huila, Tolima, Meta, Caquetá and Putumayo,” says the CNC.

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