The fright that Putin generates: why Finland and Sweden broke traditional Scandinavian neutrality

It would be an epic start. Three strong Scandinavian prime ministers walking towards the microphones of the press. A dramatic silence ensues until the fictional Danish ruler, Birgitte Nyborg Christensen, the Lady of Netflix's hit series “Borgen”, steps forward and says: “We will not tolerate what Vladimir Putin is doing”. It could be a great start to the fifth season of this fictional political drama that already had a powerful trailer preview when the Finnish royal premieres, Sanna Marin, and Sweden, Magdalena Andersson, walked to the podium on a deep autumn stage in Stockholm to announce that they had asked their countries to enter NATO, the Western military alliance, in open challenge to the leader of the Kremlin.

The procedure could take just a few weeks, they say at the organization's headquarters in Brussels. Putin has already shouted to the sky and said that, if that happens, he will deploy his nuclear arsenal in the Baltic, off the Swedish and Finnish coasts. The Russian already had several miscalculations in his offensive. He attacked Ukraine with the intention of ending democracy on its border and rebuilding the Russian Empire of the tsars or Stalin's USSR. The pretext was Putin's alleged concern that Ukraine might join NATO and set an example for any other neighbour to refrain from doing so. It was the famous “cult shot”. He ended up being a very effective recruiter for NATO. The determination to join the military alliance of the two Scandinavian countries, hitherto neutral, demonstrates this.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine completely changed public opinion in these countries, which until recently were proud of their equidistance from all powers. The latest polls show that more than 60 percent of Finns are in favor of renouncing their current status of “active neutrality” in favor of a commitment to the Western military alliance. “Our citizens are guided by what, I think, is a right fear. If Putin can massacre his sisters and brothers in Ukraine, why shouldn't he do the same with the Finns? ”, commented former Finnish premier Alexander Stubb in an interview with German television. “The prevailing feeling is that they don't want to be alone again.” Stubb referred to the Winter War against the Soviet Union between 1939 and 1940, in which Finland was not defeated, but lost about 9% of its territory.

In Sweden they are a little less enthusiastic but also determined to protect themselves under the NATO umbrella. The country will hold general elections in five months. The ruling party itself had said in November that it wanted to remain neutral, but now everything indicates that it would get the votes in Parliament for a “thorough and swift” entry into NATO. “In Sweden we have believed that we have had peace for 200 years, since Napoleon, because we have always rejected military alliances,” the famous defense analyst, Jacob Westberg, told the DW. “But now, this self-image of effective neutrality is in question. After what happened in Ukraine, we need to assess our security situation in a completely different way.”

And it is in this context that the two Social-Democratic Prime Ministers appeared in an attempt to change history. Sanna Marin, 36, who assumed in December 2019, the youngest leader in a country when she took office. Magdalena Andersson, 54, came to government last November when her predecessor resigned. Both are hardened in the partisan fights and are clearly distinguished from their predecessors of the “iron lady” type. They stand before the toughest, in this case the brutal Russian bear, with a gentle smile and the firmness of a sequoia.

Marin was raised mainly by two women. After his parents' separation, his mother lived with another woman and his relationship with his father was distant. It was a family of modest economic conditions. He had to work from a young age to pay for college. He graduated in 2012 in Administrative Sciences. She was the first to have a college degree in her family. At the same time he began his political career. She became vice-president of the Social Democratic Party in 2010, at age 25; she was elected deputy, at age 30, and in 2019 she was appointed Minister of Transport and Communications. In December of the same year, she was elected prime minister. His partner is the former footballer, Markus Räikkönen, whom he has known since the age of 18 and whom he married in August 2020 in a very simple ceremony at the official residence in Helsinki. They have a four-year-old son.

Magdalena Andersson was a great athlete, swimming champion. It is considered an “all-rounder” of politics. Daughter of university professors, she went to the best Swedish business university, Handels, and Harvard. He has been a member of the Social Democrats since he was 16 years old and held several positions in successive governments, the last before becoming premier was that of the Economics portfolio. He has two children and a fondness for hevy metal. He loves those from System of a Dawn. Before taking over, in November, he starred in a rare political novel in the Stockholm parliament. After the first vote of confidence, the alliance with the Green Party broke down and it had to go to the vote again to head a one-color government. She was elected twice in five days.

Together they stood before Putin and changed the balance of power in the North Baltic. If they finally enter NATO, the much-feared border between the countries of the alliance and Russia would go from 1,300 to 2,600 kilometers. Saint Petersburg would be barely 200 km away from the Western military unit of Laperrante, until now a quiet Finnish city closely connected to Russia. While this would mean expanding the eastern flank to be defended, the Finnish army is well armed and trained. “Finland still has conscription and could mobilize an armed forces of 280,000 soldiers. It is a fairly large army in the European context,” said Jacob Westberg, a professor at the Swedish Defence University in Stockholm.

Sweden does not have a direct border with Russia, but if it decided to join NATO, it would significantly strengthen the alliance's operations in the Baltic Sea. All countries with a coast in that area, except Russia, would belong to the group. Sweden would incorporate into NATO the island of Gotland, from which it would be possible to defend much of the Baltic Sea, as well as Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia. “It would be difficult for Russia to operate there. Sweden already has five very modern submarines, which would complement the fleets of Poland and Germany,” adds Westberg. The Swedish Air Force also has 100 modern fighter jets.

From a military point of view, Finland and Sweden are ready to join immediately and in Brussels they await them with open arms. They already have experience working together. Finnish and Swedish soldiers were part of the NATO-led operation in Afghanistan. Both countries have also been working with the United States since 2015 in training and equipment.

Now everything goes to parliaments, the Riksdag and the Eduskunta. Marin and Andersson will lead the political contest in those forums and have already asked NATO to speed up the process for their admission. Fright unites them.

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