The three teams that are candidates to win the 2022 World Cup in Qatar according to a system of predictions

There are seven months left before the start of the 2022 World Cup in Qatar and the bets between the top candidates to win the most weighted trophy in the world of football began. After the draw held in Doha, the fate of 32 countries (in fact there are three playoffs left to be defined in June) was resolved with the main route. A mathematical study revealed which three national teams are most likely to win the Cup.

The development of the ELO system, based on statistics that calculate the relative skill of athletes, established a score for each participating country. The groups and possible knockout keys were examined. The three candidate teams were Brazil, Argentina and France.

Brazil has a rating of 26.35 to succeed in Qatar 2022. He had a smooth qualifying campaign in South America in which he finished as a leader and undefeated (pending his pending match against Argentina at home). In addition, he was the champion of the Copa America in 2019 and runner-up in 2021.

Lionel Messi's Argentina ranks second with 18.41. He has an unbeaten streak of 31 games, he also did not lose matches in the South American standings and is the current champion of America.

France ranks third with 14.32. He won the UEFA Nations League and one of the most dangerous national teams in the world. The defending World Cup champions have Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann, Paul Pogba, N'Golo Kanté and Karim Benzema.

In the run-up to the World Cup, the system was adapted for national football teams in the FIFA ranking and modified to incorporate specific variables related to this sport.

Some factors that are taken into account when calculating a team's new score are: the team's previous score, the importance of the tournament in which each match is playing, the result of the match, the goal difference of the match and the expected result of the match.

And also understanding the importance of the different competitions, in descending order: final phase of the world cup, finals of continental championships and international tournaments, qualifiers for the world cup and international championships, other tournaments and finally friendly matches.

At some point the Elo system is similar to the official FIFA ranking, ranking points are updated iteratively after each match. The main idea is that the update can be seen as a correction to the qualifying points of the teams subject to the actual results and what we expected from the qualifications before the match.

What is the so-called ELO system?

It is a mathematical method that calculates the relative skill of players in sports such as chess and Go (one of the most complex games in the world). It is named after its inventor, Professor Árpád Élő (1903-1992), an American physicist of Hungarian origin.

In 1960 it was adopted by the North American Chess Federation to establish the ranking of chess players. In 1970, FIDE (International Chess Federation) did the same, later its use became widespread and applied to other sports, so in 1973 it was applied to tennis, in 1986 to golf, in 1987 to cricket players and in 2001 to cricket teams.

In 1997, Bob Runyan adapted the system to international football, as an alternative to the FIFA ranking to order the more than 200 world teams. Although its system has been modified several times.

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