Away from the discursive errors that caused her to lose the presidency in 2017 to Emmanuel Macron, the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen is projected into the second round never before with such a chance of winning. The television debate on Wednesday 20, between both candidates for the Elysee Palace, will face two models of the country that will be defined next Sunday.
To hide the most complex of his ideas, such as his proximity to autocratic leaders, such as Russian President Vladimir Putin or Hungarian Viktor Orban, Le Pen has tried to captivate the electorate by focusing on his economic proposals, a battery of measures aimed at improving the battered purchasing power of the French.
The economic vision of the far-right leader has changed. His ideas about an exit from the euro or a retirement system at age 60 have been reduced to “protecting” his fellow citizens from the effects of inflation. A package of proposals that are often tempting, such as reducing the energy and fuel tax, tax exemptions, removing commodity taxes, reducing employer contributions for employers who raise wages, among the most promoted.
However, for analysts, Marine Le Pen's initiatives, which may serve to improve the possibilities of the candidate of the National Group (RN) electorally, are noted for their economic, legal and even institutional incongruity.
One of the warnings about the consequences of implementing measures such as those put forward by Le Pen was made by the French economist, Jean Tirole, considered one of the most influential contemporary economists in the world.
Tirole, who in 2014 received the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics, commonly known as the “Nobel Prize in Economics”, due to his work on analyzing market power and regulations, gave severe warnings.
In a column published in La Dépêche du Midi, the specialist even described the far-right candidate's economic program as a “concealer and without funds” project, which “will permanently impoverish our country”
The gross mistakes of this program, at least for Tirole, provide for “a list of additional expenses, greatly underestimated by 68 billion euros per year, financed with the help of unfortunately partly fictitious receipts”.
To be descriptive in his predictions, the Aube-born economist indicated that an imbalance such as that set out in the accounts of Le Pen's policy would cause markets to lose confidence in France, and he anticipates: “The lack of foresight in the Marine Le Pen program will not reassure the latter, who will see in France a European version of Argentina”.
According to him, the 16 billion euros in savings that the ultra-conservative aspirant says she wants to achieve thanks to immigration measures are based on imprecise calculations. According to the expert, “all studies show that immigrants cost almost nothing in terms of public money, because the social security contributions of those who work offset the costs charged to our social protection system.”
Reflecting also on how Le Pen would achieve “8 billion savings in the functioning of the State”, he believes, as before him the French laboratory of ideas, the Montaigne Institute, that “the cost of its expenditure program seems very underestimated”.
The Le Pen match, which chose the slogan “For all Frenchmen” for the second round, is planning to start its term with a referendum to establish a “national priority” in particular in terms of employment, support and social assistance. accommodation. Also make solidarity benefits conditional on five years of work in France, and to withdraw the residence permit from any foreigner who has not worked for a year.
Tirole has referred to these ideas, such as lowering retirement to age 60 for those who started working between the ages of 17 and 20. From the economist's point of view, such a retirement reform “will break our system, with important consequences for the most disadvantaged”
“Marine Le Pen's proposals neither prepare France for the future, nor reduce inequalities,” he added to the column in this prestigious French media.
It has also been said that so many provisions that Le Pen makes go against the Constitution. Specialists have stressed that an unprecedented institutional crisis will ensue if this reform program is addressed
Finally, if the far-right candidate “no longer talks about leaving Europe and the euro, her program is tantamount to sitting on European rules and will immediately create a deep crisis in the Union, with immediate repercussions on France's budgetary credibility,” warns the Nobel.
Tirole, distinguished by the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economics, concluded that these decisions would be “a Frexit that does not say its name”.
KEEP READING: