Andrei Illarionov, former chief economic adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, explained in an interview with CNN why he believes that a total embargo on Russian oil would quickly end the war.
Illarionov recently told the BBC that if Western countries applied a “real embargo” on Russia's oil and gas exports, the war in Ukraine would likely end “in a month or two.”
“I think it is a very important non-military instrument for influencing the decision-making process in the Kremlin. The reason is very simple. Right now, direct revenues from Russia's oil and gas exports are considered to be about 40% of all Russian budget revenues. Direct and indirect income shall be taken into account. In total, it will probably be about 60% of all revenue from the federal budget,” CNN journalist Brianna Keilar told Illarionov.
“Assuming that these revenues are substantially reduced as a result of the application of a total embargo on energy exports from Russia, we understand that it cannot be absolutely total because there is China and perhaps some other smaller consumers; however, it would affect the main bulk of energy importers from Russia,” he continued.
“And assuming that Russia at the moment does not have access to the credit market due to sanctions, and assuming that the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of Russia are frozen, the Russian government, Putin's government, has no resources to finance spending,” he added.
Illarionov pointed out that all these expenses will be forced to “be reduced by 40% to 50%”, a figure that was not even seen in the 1990s.
“That is why the regime will have to stop operations, look for some armistice and see some negotiation with Ukraine,” Illarionov concluded.
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