“If we are not careful, we will return to the jungle of war and violence.” This is how the prominent Israeli historian Yuval Noah Harari defends the system of international order that has ruled in recent decades and which has been put at risk by the war in Ukraine. For this reason, he believes that a resounding defeat of Vladimir Putin would be a victory to preserve that settlement.
Although Harari does not see a nuclear conflict close, he spares no warnings about the invasion and tension between the powers. “This is perhaps the most dangerous moment in the history of the world since the Cuban missile crisis, when a nuclear war is suddenly a possibility,” he said Wednesday, in an interview with CNBC.
At that time, more than half a century ago, the US and the Soviet Union were closer than ever to a war of atomic powers. For this reason, Harari said that today everyone, from individuals to governments, must be very concerned about a possible military escalation. “It's a possibility, a real possibility that we need to consider. And it is terrible news for the entire human race,” said the author of Sapiens: From animals to gods.
As for Russia, Harari estimated that Putin spends about 20% of the national budget on defense, a figure that multiplies that of other countries several times. In fact, in NATO the norm is that it should be at least 2.5%, and most countries do not comply with it. For the historian, if the world were to spend on weapons like the Kremlin does, it would greatly alter the quality of life. “If defence budgets around the world were 20% instead of 6%, that would be detrimental to our health, our well-being, and it would also be detrimental to the fight against other dangers such as climate change,” he said.
On the other hand, he warned that the West should not seek regime change in Russia, as US President Joe Biden slipped a few days ago. “Anyone who has such fantasies of marching to Moscow, let him forget about them as soon as possible,” he said, warning that such attempts would challenge the Kremlin more. “The aim of the war must be to protect the freedom of Ukraine, not to change Moscow. This depends on the Russian people,” he added.
Instead, he said that achieving a peaceful resolution of the invasion of Ukraine would not only benefit that country and its neighbors, but the entire international community.
“We have become so used to it that we take it for granted,” he said of the international order threatened by authoritarian regimes. If that system collapses, he considered that countries will be “forced to spend much more on tanks and missiles and much less on teachers and nurses and welfare systems.”
Therefore, he pointed out that the hope for that order is the defeat of the Kremlin. “If Putin loses and is seen to lose, that will actually safeguard the previous order. When there is a rule and someone violates the norm and is punished for it, then this really reinforces the norm,” he said.
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