At least 18 Russian generals and colonels have died since the beginning of the invasion ordered by Vladimir Putin of Ukraine on February 24. Every piece of information concerning the death of a Russian high command surprises: how can it be possible for a commander to be hit by enemy fire? What is the fault of one of the most impressive armies in the world?
Russia is trying to hide communications about the deaths, but the reality is that at least 18 senior commanders were hit by snipers in the 50 days that the bloody invasion has taken place. Among them is Andrei Sukhovetsky, general in command of the 7th Airborne Division of Russia and deputy commander of the 41st Combined Arms Army and first in the series. A sniper ended his life from 1500 meters.
War expert John Arquilla, distinguished professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Graduate School, believes he has the answer. The academic has been studying the art of combat for years and knows tactics like few others, but also about deficiencies.
In an interview with the prestigious journalist Thomas Friedman of The New York Times, Arquilla argued his hypothesis as to why so many senior officers - generals and colonels - died on the battlefield.
He first explained that one of the characteristics of the current contest that the Russians could not unravel was the way the Ukrainians were fighting. “Many and little ones win big and heavy. Ukrainians are operating in squadron units armed with intelligent weapons, and they are capable of breaking up much larger formations and attacking slow, noisy helicopters and so on. So, although they are outnumbered by the Russians, Ukrainians have many, many more units of action, usually between eight and ten soldiers.”
This causes bewilderment, especially in newer officers, with no experience on the ground and under pressure to decide what to do when the exchange of fire begins.
Ukrainians “should still have an advantage in search, and they are already used to operating in such small units. The Russians are much more centralized. One of the reasons why so many generals have been killed is that, on a tactical level, they don't have people trained to make those quick decisions in a shooting; only general officers can do it, so they had to approach the front and do things that lieutenants and sergeants of the US army do habitually.”
For Arquilla, meanwhile, the war could be prolonged precisely because it is Ukraine that offers unprecedented resistance, which would result in a conflict without a clear winner and with massive casualties.
“The longer the fighting lasts, the tougher the Ukrainian resistance, thanks to the forms of war in which they pioneer, the greater the risk of escalation,” says Arquilla. “But Putin has cowed Russian civil society into subjugation. And it is unlikely that the Russian military, so embarrassed by his relative bad performance, will turn against him. Therefore, you probably think that you are not under time pressure to de-escalate,” lamented the academic expert.
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