What is the risk of a new wave of COVID in America, experts say

Due to the advancement of the circulation of the sublinage of the Ómicron BA.2 variant, it is already feared that there will be a new wave of cases of people with COVID-19 from North America to South America. After its detection in November last year in South Africa, Ómicron's BA.1 sublineage had dominated the world over, and it led to an explosive wave in December in South America. The situation calmed down.

However, cases have been growing again in Europe and Asia a month ago, and now the authorities of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) and South American experts consulted by Infobae have already warned that there is a risk that another wave will occur again in the Americas. However, it may have a smaller health impact than the previous ones.

The director of that health agency, Carissa Etienne, warned that the region may suffer a new wave of COVID-19. “Time and again, we have seen the dynamics of infection in Europe reflect here just a few weeks later,” he said. He urged countries to remain vigilant and urgently close vaccination gaps.

Already in some parts of North America and the Caribbean, where the sublineage of Ómicron BA.2 is becoming the predominant variant, new infections are beginning to increase. “We cannot ignore the risk of further COVID-19 spikes,” he added. But now “we know what needs to be done to protect our population”.

One of the weaknesses is that there are still 240 million people in the Americas who have not yet received a single dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.

This lack of protection can help keep the virus circulating. There are also few countries in the region that have been able to make progress with the application of booster doses that gives greater protection against Ómicron, which is more transmissible than previous variants of concern.

Consulted by Infobae today, Dr. Carolina Torres, who is part of the Country Project - the genomic surveillance initiative of the Argentine Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation - and a researcher in virology at the Faculty of Pharmacy and Biochemistry of the University of Buenos Aires and Conicet, commented: “E A scenario of increased cases of infection with Ómicron BA.2 or another lineage is expected in the coming weeks in South America. Perhaps it will even be associated with a new wave, although it is not possible to know at this time.”

In the coming weeks, Dr. Torres said, “it will be approximately three months since the peak of Ómicron BA.1 in Argentina, and it is known that immunity declines after this time. In addition, the still limited coverage of additional or booster doses in the population, which are especially important compared to Ómicron, is added. It will also begin the coldest time (associated with less ventilation of environments and the decrease in the use of the mask and distance. Those factors leave the way quite paved for an increase in infections. Anyway, the outlook doesn't necessarily have to worry us, but it should keep us alert.”

According to Torres' estimation, “if this increase in cases eventually occurs, it will very likely have a small impact, in relative terms to other waves, on the number of severe cases, hospitalizations and deaths.”

Meanwhile, from the Argentine Society of Infectology (SADI), the doctor Leda Guzzi, said: “It is difficult to think that in South America we could be exempt from the dynamics that the pandemic has exhibited in the northern hemisphere. With cold temperatures, an environment is more conducive to the spread of coronavirus. If we add to that the Ómicron sublinages with very high contagiosity, in a context of intense movement of travelers, and without restrictions, it is difficult to think that our region can escape a new wave.”

Regarding the impact that a new wave could have, Dr. Guzzi explained that “high coverage with two doses of vaccines would allow us to anticipate that there would not be a high impact on hospitalizations and deaths, unlike what happens, for example, in Hong Kong. There, the virus caused intense lethality and impact on the health system, within the framework of low vaccination coverage.”

However, Guzzi made a wake-up call for the population. “It is key that people go for the booster dose or the third dose. This dose is essential to raise neutralizing antibodies and boosting cellular immunity, thereby reducing the risk of infection, but especially the risk of severe forms, hospitalization and death,” she said when asked by Infobae.

The Minister of Health of the City of Buenos Aires, Fernán Quirós, did not rule out the occurrence of “a new wave of cases” of COVID-19 in the coming weeks, with the arrival of the coldest days, although it ruled out the possibility of a number of seriously ill patients as in previous waves, while recommending continuing to protect themselves with a mask in closed places, including to limit the spread of other respiratory diseases.

Chile is the country with the highest percentage of the population immunized with a third dose against COVID-19 in the world, according to the website OurWorldInData. It reached 87% of the population with the reinforcement. Uruguay has already applied the reinforcement in 66% of the population. Then followed by Cuba (56%), Canada (49%) and Argentina (44%). Other countries in the Americas such as Peru, Brazil and Colombia have 43%, 39% and 21% of their population on booster doses respectively.

From Uruguay, virologist Santiago Mirazo, adjunct professor in the Department of Bacteriology and Virology of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of the Republic, replied to Infobae: “The sublineage of Ómicron BA.2 is more transmissible than BA.1. Both sublinages manage to evade the immune response that vaccines give. Therefore, while vaccines continue to protect against severe cases and hospitalizations, there are immunized people who can get infected and spread to others. In the coming months, there may be spikes in COVID-19 cases in South America, although the lethality would be lower than previous waves.”

Dr. Mirazo agreed that today it is important to increase booster dose coverage for better protection of the most vulnerable groups in South America. “Nor can it be ruled out that another variant of concern appears. It's not very likely, but it's a possibility and it could be more transmissible. What would worry is that it evades the immune response even more even with booster doses of vaccination,” he said.

In the Northern Hemisphere there are also fears of increased circulation Ómicron BA.2. Its speed of contagion is 30% higher than the sublinage that circulated between November and February last. Cases have increased again in several parts of the United States, and most notably in cities such as Washington and New York, where about 1,500 cases are being recorded a day, more than double that of a month ago.

In the region that comprises the tristate area of New Jersey, Connecticut and New York, BA.2 has become the dominant one with 84 per cent of cases. Although the impact is less than that which shook strongly in New York and in the rest of the country, until it exceeded one million cases in one day and hospitals collapsed again last December.

The incidence level of COVID-19 in the United States is now moderate to mild in almost the entire country, with just under 30,000 cases a day and 564 deaths, 32% less than two weeks ago. The number of people admitted to intensive care units with the virus is 2,206 nationwide.

KEEP READING: