Russia is using weapons smuggled by Iran from Iraq in Ukraine

Members of Iraqi militias backed by Iran and regional intelligence services claim that Russia is receiving ammunition and military equipment from Iraq to reinforce its troops in the midst of the war in Ukraine, also counting on the help of Iranian weapons smuggling networks.

RPGs and anti-tank missiles, as well as Brazilian-designed rocket launch systems, have been sent to Russia from Iraq, as the Moscow campaign has failed in the past month, sources cited by The Guardian reported.

According to the British media, which cites a source who helped organize transport, the Tehran authorities also donated to Moscow an Iranian-made Bavar 373 missile system, similar to the Russian S-300, which also returned an S-300.

Using the underworld of arms trafficking would signal a dramatic change in Russian strategy, as Moscow is forced to rely on Iran, its military ally in Syria, following the new sanctions brought about by the invasion of Ukraine.

The developments also have enormous implications for the direction and volume of trade in the international arms trade business.

Iraq has hosted American and Western troops since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and the U.S. has trained and supplied several units of the Iraqi army and special forces to defend the Baghdad government against insurgencies. After two decades of war, the country is flooded with weapons.

Much of it has passed legally into the hands of Iranian-backed Shiite militias, which oppose the US presence in the country, but which since 2016 officially joined the Iraqi armed forces as part of the fight against the Islamic State.

Known for their efficiency in dismantling the Islamic State's “caliphate”, and for their brutal treatment of Sunni civilians, these groups have become powerful actors in Iraq's security system.

RPGs (rocket-propelled grenades) and anti-tank missiles held by Hashd al-Shaabi, the umbrella of the most powerful Shiite militia, were transported to Iran via the Salamja border crossing on March 26, where they were met by the Iranian army and taken to Russia by sea, a commander of the militia branch said that controls the crossing to The Guardian.

ashd al-Shaabi also dismantled and shipped in pieces two Brazilian-designed Astros II rocket launch systems, known in Iraq as the version built under license Sakhil-60, to Iran on April 1, according to a source within the organization.

“We don't care where heavy weapons go because we don't need them right now,” said a source from Hashd al-Shaabi. “Anything that is anti-American makes us happy.”

Three cargo ships capable of carrying such cargo, two with a Russian flag and one carrying an Iranian flag, crossed the Caspian Sea from the Iranian port of Bandar Anzali to Astrakhan, a Russian city in the Volga Delta, within the established deadlines.

“What the Russians need in Ukraine right now are missiles. These require the ability to transport them, as they are fragile and explosive, but if you commit to doing so, it is possible,” said Yörük Işık, an expert in maritime affairs based in Istanbul. “Nor is it the type of activity that would be captured by satellite images, since they can be transported in large boxes and regular shipping containers.”

Mohaned Hage Ali, Mario Oriente policy analyst at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center, explained to the British media that such sophisticated weaponry, such as rocket launching systems, would make a big difference in the field of war in Ukraine.

“ashd al-Shaabi controls much of the border region with Iran, which would facilitate this transaction. Other countries such as China need to be very careful about delivering weapons to Russia now, given the new sanctions situation. Iran, as part of that axis, wants to ensure that Russia does not lose ground in this conflict,” the expert explained.

He added that if Putin's regime is destabilized it would have huge implications for Iran, particularly in Syria, as Damascus relies on Russian air support and Russia coordinates to avoid a direct conflict between them and Israel.

The broad economic sanctions imposed on Moscow by Western nations since the February 24 invasion have included a ban on dual-use goods (items for civilian and military purposes), such as spare parts for vehicles and certain types of electronic and optical devices, as well as items with obvious military uses.

Russian manufacturers have reportedly been hit hard by the new restrictions, and Ukraine says that the country's main armored vehicle plant, as well as a tractor factory, have run out of parts to manufacture and repair tanks.

The revised Western estimates are that 29 of Russia's original battalion tactical groups are now “not ineffective in combat” of an invading force estimated at 125 battalions, or about 75% of Russia's total army, in the six-week “special military operation”.

Significant losses have yielded little gain: Moscow for now seems to have abandoned its initial attempt to seize the capital, Kiev, and instead has reduced and repositioned its ground forces for a renewed assault on the Donbas region in the south-east of the country.

Air and artillery strikes are expected to continue on the cities of Kharkiv and Mykolaiv, as well as on the besieged port of Mariupol.

Last week, Ukrainian intelligence services accused Georgia of helping Russia receive sanctioned military materiel, another potential sign of the scale of the Kremlin's new efforts to use international smuggling networks to aid its campaign in Ukraine.

The Georgian special services were instructed by the country's political leaders not to interfere with “East Asia” smuggling channels designed to circumvent the new Western sanctions, the Kiev intelligence leadership said in a statement.

Georgian officials said Ukraine's claims were unfounded. Relations between the two post-Soviet nations have deteriorated dramatically since the conflict broke out over the refusal of the pro-Russian government in Tbilisi to impose economic sanctions on Moscow.

US officials have also said that Russia has asked China for military-grade weapons and assistance to support its operation in Ukraine.

Russian ally Serbia received delivery of a Chinese anti-aircraft system in a secret operation over the weekend, the Associated Press reported, amid Western concerns about a build-up of weapons in the Balkans at the same time as the war in Ukraine that could threaten fragile peace in the region.

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