Consumer confidence fell in February and stood at -17.8%

On April 11, Fedesarrollo presented the result of the Consumer Opinion Survey, in which it was found that Colombian consumer confidence recorded a balance of -17.8%. This value represents a 0.3 percentage point (pps) drop compared to February.

According to the report, the decline in consumer confidence compared to February 2022 was due to an increase in the Economic Conditions Index, which was offset by a fall in the Consumer Expectations Index.

The ICC has five components, of which the first three refer to household expectations within a year, while the remaining two refer to consumers' perceptions of the current economic situation.

The first three constructs the Consumer Expectations Index (IEC) and the other two build the Economic Conditions Index (ICE). The decrease in the ICC compared to February is explained by a 4.5 pps increase in the Economic Conditions Index (-32.3%) and a 3.5 pps reduction in the Consumer Expectations Index (-8.2%).

When comparing the results for the first quarter of 2022 with the results for the fourth quarter of 2021, the valuation of consumers on the situation of their households decreased by 11.6 pps and the consumer valuation of the country fell by 11.0 pps.

For its part, the willingness of consumers to buy durable goods so far in the first quarter stood at -47.8%, a result that represents a decrease of 18.9 pps relative to the balance recorded in the fourth quarter of 2021.

In March, the ICC decreased in three of the five cities surveyed compared to February 2022 as follows: Bucaramanga (18.5 pps), Bogotá (2.6 pps), and Cali (1.4 pps); while it increased in Medellin (10.3 pps) and Barranquilla (3.1 pps).

By stratum, consumer confidence declined only at the middle socioeconomic level in March, while it increased at the high and low levels compared to the previous month. By socioeconomic status, compared to the previous month, the ICC decreased by 1.8 pps in the middle stratum, while it increased 1.4 pps in the lower stratum and 1.2 pps in the upper stratum

Willingness to buy housing decreased by 1.2 pps compared to last month. By cities, this indicator increased in two of the five cities analyzed relative to February 2022.

On the other hand, the indicator of willingness to buy housing stood at -16.2%, which is equivalent to a decrease of 1.2 pps compared to the previous month (-15.0%). For this month, willingness to buy housing increased in Bogotá (7.4 pps) and Medellin (6.4 pps); while it decreased in Cali (44.0 pps), Bucaramanga (8.3 pps) and Barranquilla (4.4 pps) relative to what was observed in February 2022

In March, the results of the indicator of willingness to buy housing disaggregated by socioeconomic status showed an increase compared to last month of 14.3 pps in the middle stratum.

Meanwhile, the indicator decreased 63.8 pps in the upper stratum and 8.8 pps in the lower stratum, relative to what was observed in February 2022.

The purchase of furniture and household appliances increased by 12.8 pps compared to the previous month. By cities, this indicator fell in one of the five cities analyzed compared to what was observed in February 2022.

The balance of responses about whether it is a good or bad time to buy goods such as furniture and appliances stood at -39.2% in March, representing an increase of 12.8 pps compared to February 2022.

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