Ukraine's war spreads to Russian territory, Serbia and Slovakia: three possible scenarios for the future

The Russian offensive in the Donbas has its strongest point within Russian territory itself. Through the M4 motorway running parallel to the border and linking the Russian cities of Voronez and Rostov, the new supply line was built after the failure of the advance over Kiev from Belarus. And between the M4 and the border, which in some areas is a strip of a few kilometers, batteries were raised for launching missiles and bombs. From there they will launch the biggest offensive to stay with the Russian East.

Other pieces of the allies on both sides are also moving. The most worrying move was played by China. According to a special report by the AP agency, six Y-20 transport aircraft of the Chinese Air Force landed at Belgrade's civilian airport early Saturday carrying an unknown number of HQ-22 surface-to-air missile systems for the Serbian army. Serbia is an ally of Russia and military analysts believe that these missile systems could be transferred to Russia for deployment on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

On the other side, there is also movement of weapons. Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger confirmed the dispatch of his S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. It is the second NATO country to dare to make public the delivery of weapons to Ukraine after the Czech Republic assured that it would send tanks. The S-300 is a Soviet-era long-range surface-to-air missile system that can shoot down cruise missiles and aircraft and can hit targets up to 140 kilometers away. It is considered one of the most powerful anti-aircraft missile systems and is in the arsenal of three NATO countries: Slovakia, Bulgaria and Greece.

In the more specific theater of war, everything is concentrated in the Ukrainian East and there will be the battle that will determine three possible avenues for the coming days/months: Putin stays with the Donbas and creates, de facto, an Eastern Ukraine, declares himself victorious and ends the war; Putin feels victorious and once conquer the Donbas will regroup its forces to finally go over Kyiv; the campaign in the East is bogged down as happened in the north and Putin is forced to go weakened to a negotiating table due to the exhaustion of troops and ammunition, Ukraine achieves a decent exit from the war with accession to the European Union as a prize.

All military intelligence reports confirm that Russia is moving hundreds of military vehicles, including infantry support units and combat helicopters to eastern Ukraine in preparation for the new phase of the war that has already entered the seventh week. On Monday, satellite images appeared showing a long column of Russian military vehicles moving through the eastern city of Velykyi Burluk (about 40 km from the Russian border) towards the city of Izium. The convoy is several kilometers long. The units are intended to support the infantry and cover the helicopter attack.

A US official informed journalists accredited to the Pentagon that the Russians are also sending more artillery to southwest Donetsk, in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatist forces fighting there since 2014 are located. “It is clear evidence that the Russians are playing all their assets in the Donbas. And that they are willing to conquer this region with massive and highly destructive bombardments,” explained the senior Pentagon official.

Since the focus of the war changed, after the failure in the seizure of Kyiv, Russia accumulated ten more battalions in the East, from 30 to 40. There are about 40,000 soldiers in total who were already at the front, as well as fresh troops coming through Crimea. Moscow withdrew another 40,000 soldiers from northern Ukraine to rearm and resupply them in Russia and Belarus and move them to the East in the coming weeks. Some 20,000 Syrian fighters are also expected to arrive, who have already fought alongside the Russians in their country's civil war and are coming from a three-week training somewhere on Russian territory.

Unlike what happened in the north and the surrounding areas of Kyiv, where the troops sent by Putin had to withdraw after suffering a huge number of casualties and evidencing their severe supply shortcomings, the terrain on which the campaign is now taking place is much more favourable to the movements of troops, heavy vehicles and Russian tanks. They are also closer to the supply lines on Russian territory and a narrower battle space. Above all, the occupying forces can have a very close rear, within Russian borders, and also attack Ukrainians from there. The Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, told the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington on Thursday that “the ground is now much more open and lends itself to armored mechanized offensive operations on both sides.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told NATO members that “the battle for Donbas will remind them of World War II.”

Although it should be borne in mind that not only is there a marked exhaustion in both Russian and Ukrainian troops, but they need new weapons better suited to the needs of this phase of the war. That is why the arms movements of the last few hours are crucial and can turn the tide of the conflict. Any mistake, accident or false calculation in the delivery of these weapons can ignite the fuse of other war scenarios.

Chinese cargo planes bearing military badges were photographed at Nikola Tesla Airport in Belgrade. And the Serbian Ministry of Defense did not report why it is receiving this armament at this time. The delivery was made with Chinese freighters flying over the territory of at least two NATO Member States, Turkey and Bulgaria. “The appearance of the Y-20s was even more noticeable because they flew en masse instead of a series of single-plane flights,” wrote the specialized online magazine The Warzone. “The presence of the Y-20s in Europe in any number is also an unprecedented event.” And Serbian military analyst Aleksandar Radic believes that “the Chinese made their demonstration of force, something like saying 'here we are, don't forget about us'”.

The Bratislava government handing over the S-300 was a little more predictable, although it is still a potentially dangerous maneuver. The Slovak Prime Minister clarified on Facebook that the donation of the system does not mean that Slovakia, a NATO country, has become part of the armed conflict in Ukraine. The delivery is blessed from Washington. President Volodymyr Zelensky had specifically called for this weapon for his defense when he spoke by videoconference to the US Congress. “Russia turned the Ukrainian sky into a source of death for thousands of people,” Zelensky said. “You know what kind of defense systems we need, S-300 and other similar systems.”

So far NATO refused to intervene in the war, but after the release of videos showing the atrocities committed by Russian soldiers, the 30 member countries were left hands free to make any individual arms deliveries. The Secretary General of the Western Military Defence Organization, Jens Stoltenberg, said that some member countries were willing to increase the supply of weapons to Ukraine. It is possible that the arms barter to which countries such as Poland and the Baltic republics committed themselves at the beginning of the war will intensify. President Joe Biden said on Friday that the United States supported Slovakia's decision to send S-300 missiles to Ukraine and, in return, was transferring to the Eastern European country a Patriot missile defense system as a replacement. “Now is not the time for complacency,” Biden said after accusing the Russian army of committing “horrible acts of brutality.”

This exchange of missile systems constitutes a crucial change in the relationship of forces. The massacres of Bucha, Irpin and so many other towns and cities that were occupied by the Russians softened the hearts of leaders who until now claimed to support Ukraine but could not directly supply weapons so as not to provoke “a Third World War”. They also raise new questions: Are the Chinese delivering state-of-the-art missile systems to Serbia for transfer to the Russians? Could such systems be used from Russia without entering Ukrainian territory? Could Russia regard Slovakia's delivery of arms aid to Ukraine as an act of aggression and attack Bratislava? Would NATO regard Beijing's delivery of missiles as an act of hostility?

The answers will be tied to the struggle on the ground. This week will be marked by massive and indiscriminate attacks by Russian tanks and missile batteries throughout the Donbas strip that has been resisting the pro-Russian offensive in that area since 2014.

Keep reading: