Presidential elections in France: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, twelve days to convince about two opposing ideas of the country

Stunned by the meager results of traditional parties and alarmed by a possible victory for the ultra-conservative Marine Le Pen. This is how French politics and the European partner countries have been left, which translate from the results real dangers for the Community project.

Five years after the 2017 presidential elections, the second round will have the same rivals. Emmanuel Macron, the current president, and Marine Le Pen, the ultra-conservative leader, finished first in the initial round of voting on Sunday, April 10. The French will have to decide on the 24th of this month between two projects, as a whole, diametrically opposed, although some try to find certain topics of convergence.

“Nothing is decided”, highlighted the prestigious Spiegel magazine about the first French round. “In these unimaginable times”, everything is possible even “for someone like Le Pen to gain access to the highest French public service”, stressed the liberal daily Die Zeit.

Beyond the results, which define this upcoming contest, the first consequences confirm the course of a breakdown of the country's political landscape. A bipolar, divided France. On the one hand, a candidate, Macron who becomes more attractive the higher he rises in the social and income ranks, and in the traditional right-wing electorate, where he has progressed since 2017. Even empowered, in an international context, which has promoted it in the face of the shortage of leaders at the height of the occasion.

But there is another hexagon, where Marine Le Pen has signed up, adjusting speech. Message to captivate the support of the lowest income sectors, hit by inflation, pressed by the hardships of declining purchasing power. A country cracked between wealthy layers, in front of workers and retirees. The division between France from above and France from below, grows strongly, and will be revealed in the next round. There, the old tirade left or right will not be in conflict.

A fifth Republic “in trouble” that Emmanuel Macron failed to amend. During 2017, the brilliant young man born in Amiens, arrived promising that the country would move away from extremes. Now many, who know of this unfulfilled promise, arrive almost breathlessly to accompany it.

However, the times torments that were predicted, a sense of danger about the stalking of the National Association of Marine Le Pen, mobilized the “macronists” to moderate the turmoil. Now, Emmanuel Macron keeps a light mattress ahead of Marine Le Pen for the second round of the presidential elections.

According to provisional data from the Ministry of the Interior, Macron won 27.6% of votes with 97% of votes counted. He is followed by Le Pen with 23.41%. Both, being the most voted, enter the second round. In third place, pursuing the far-right, was the contender for the populist left Jean-Luc Mélenchon, with 21.95%.

Another singular fact is the quasi-extinction of two traditional parties. The calamitous results of Anne Hidalgo, the mayor of Paris, and the leader of the Republican Party, Valérie Pécresse, two historical and backbone groups for French political and institutional life, reflect a partitioned society like never before, reflecting this twelfth presidential of the Fifth Republic. Results that emerge a trinomial, a central duo with Macron and Le Pen, which will define April 24, but with an important decision maker, who emerges from the radical left of Mélenchon.

In the daily barometer Opinionway-Kéa Partners for the Les Echos newspaper published on Monday, the outgoing president would win with 55% of the votes against the candidate of the National Group (45%) on the night of the second round.

In this poll, carried out after the announcement of the results of the first round, the tenant of the Elysée advanced 1 point compared to last Friday. But it remains far from its peak that dates back to the beginning of March, when the intention to vote in its favor had reached a maximum of 59%.

On the other hand, more than 11 million French people did not go to vote, that is, a quarter of those authorized and registered. Abstention will also be on the lookout for the second round on April 24. According to measurements, 71% of French people registered on the electoral lists intend to participate in the second round of elections. A figure below the 74.6% recorded for the first match between the two candidates in 2017.

This screening of those who did not attend may change in the remaining two weeks of the campaign, as can voting intentions. The traditional televised debate between the two rounds, which will take place on Wednesday, April 20, four days before the elections, promises to be decisive for both candidates.

The campaign already started this Monday morning. Sunday took 10 of the 12 applicants out of action. Once the results are known, there are now twelve days left, where the voted duo must separately convince the voters of their qualities against each other. Nothing less, when France occupies the chair of the European Council, and the definition will be central to the economic, institutional, cultural and social project that the European Union means.

With Macron and Le Pen, a clash between opposing models for France and Europe will be resolved. In a context of weakening liberal democracies, with strong demands from their societies, apathetic and disoriented, in a context of a war that further deepens questions about the institutional model of Western countries.}

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