How to start living with COVID, an issue that divides experts in Europe

For many in Britain, it's as if the pandemic is over.

Mask requirements have been abandoned. Free mass trials are a thing of the past. And for the first time since spring 2020, people can go on vacation abroad without ordering diagnostic tests or filling out lengthy forms.

This sense of freedom is widespread despite the fact that infections skyrocketed in Britain in March, driven by the milder but most contagious subvariant omicron BA.2, which spreads rapidly in Europe, the United States and elsewhere.

The situation in Britain could be a preview of what awaits other countries as coronavirus restrictions are lifted.

France and Germany have seen similar increases in infections in recent weeks, and the number of hospitalizations in Britain and France rose again, although the daily death toll remains well below the figures seen at other times during the pandemic.

In the United States, more and more Americans are getting tested at home, so official case numbers are probably well below the real. Among the newly infected are actors and politicians, who are often tested. Several members of the government, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, Broadway actors, and the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut have all tested positive.

Britain stands out in Europe because it abandoned all prevention measures in February, including compulsory isolation for those infected. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's conservative government is determined to stick to its plan to “live with COVID”, but experts disagree on whether the country is managing it well.

Some scientists say it's the right time to accept that “living with COVID” means tolerating a certain level of deaths and complications in everyday life, as we do with seasonal flu. Others believe that the British government lifted the restrictions too quickly and too soon. They warned that deaths and hospitalizations could continue to rise because more people aged 55 and over, those most likely to develop a severe COVID-19 condition, are now becoming infected despite high vaccination rates.

Hospitals are again under pressure, both by patients with the virus and by the numerous casualties of infected workers, said the chief medical officer of the National Health Service, Stephen Powis.

“Closing your eyes to this level of damage is not living with a viral infection, quite the contrary,” said Stephen Griffin, professor of medicine at the University of Leeds. “Without sufficient vaccinations, ventilation, masks, isolation and evidence, we will continue to live with complications, illness and, sadly, death.”

Others, such as Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, looked better at government policies.

“We're not at the point where (COVID-19) is going to be less harmful (...) but we've been through the worst,” he said. Once a high vaccination rate is reached, he said, maintaining restrictions such as social distancing is of little value because “in the end they never prevent infections, they only delay them,” he said.

The British statistical agency estimated that nearly 5 million residents in Britain, or one in 13, had the virus by the end of March, the highest figure reported by the agency. On the other hand, the REACT study from Imperial College London said its data showed that the country's contagion rate in March was 40% higher than with the first omicron peak in January.

The contagion rate is so high that airlines had to cancel flights during bustling Easter because there were too many workers on sick leave.

France and Germany have seen similar increases after restrictions were lifted in most European countries. More than 100,000 people in France tested positive a day despite the sharp reduction in tests, and the number of patients with the virus in intensive care rose by 22% last week.

The government of President Emmanuel Macron, eager to encourage participation in the April elections, is not considering any new restrictions.

In Germany, contagion rates have declined after a recent peak. But Health Minister Karl Lauterbach reversed the decision to end isolation for infected people just two days after announcing it. The plan, he said, would give a “completely wrong” impression that “either the pandemic is over or the virus has become considerably less harmful than it was considered in the past.”

In the United States, outbreaks at Georgetown and Johns Hopkins Universities have brought back mask rules on those campuses while those responsible sought quarantine spaces.

In Europe, only Spain and Switzerland have joined Britain by lifting isolation requirements for at least some infected people.

But many European countries have reduced mass testing, which makes it much more difficult to know the prevalence of the virus. Britain stopped distributing free home trials this month.

Julian Tang, a leading influenza virologist at the University of Leiscester, said that while it is important to have a surveillance program to monitor new variants and update the vaccine, countries manage the flu without mandatory restrictions or mass testing.

“In the end, COVID-19 will settle down to become more endemic and seasonal, like the flu,” Tang said. “Living with COVID, for me, must imitate living with the flu.”

Cambridge University virologist Ravindra Gupta is more prudent. Death rates from COVID-19 are still much higher than those of seasonal flu and the virus causes more serious illness, he warned. He would have preferred “a softer lifting of restrictions”.

“There is no reason to believe that a new variant could not be more contagious or serious,” he added.

(with information from AP)

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