After a failed “Plan A”, Russia changes its strategy: what is coming with its “Plan B”

With Russian hopes of storming Kiev and other major cities in northern Ukraine frustrated by strong resistance, Moscow has refocused its efforts in the east of the country, seeking to make profits there and use them to dictate its terms in the talks on the end of the conflict.

Russian troops are preparing for a massive offensive in the industrial heart of eastern Ukraine known as Donbas, and the next few weeks could determine the outcome of the war.

When Russian forces invaded Ukraine from the north, east and south on February 24, President Vladimir Putin was counting on a swift victory, similar to his annexation of the Ukrainian Crimean peninsula in 2014.

Russian troops entering Ukraine from Belarus, allied with Moscow, quickly reached the outskirts of Kiev, only 75 kilometers (47 miles) south of the border, but were bogged down in front of Ukrainian defenses.

After unsuccessful attempts to storm the capital and other large cities in the north, Russian forces tried to surround and strike them with artillery and air strikes. The relentless shelling resulted in massive civilian casualties and damaged infrastructure, but did not weaken Ukraine's resolve. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces successfully used artillery and drones against Russian convoys that stretched for tens of kilometers (miles) along the roads outside Kiev. That created massive logistical problems for the Russians.

“People are more motivated to defend their territory when it is their own territory than to attack it,” Gideon Rose, of the Council on Foreign Relations and author of How Wars End, told NPR. “It can be seen that soldiers and mercenaries on the Russian side are not particularly motivated, whereas Ukrainians who they defend their homes if they are.”

On March 29, Russia announced a drastic change in strategy, saying it would reduce military activities around Kyiv and Chernihiv, focusing instead on the “liberation” of Donbas.

A rapid withdrawal from areas in the north and northeast followed, with forces retreating to Belarus and Russia to rest and replenish.

Moscow sought to put a positive spin on what Ukrainian and Western officials described as the failure of the offensive. Russia said the action in the north was intended to tie up and weaken Ukrainian forces there and prevent them from joining the troops participating in the fighting in the east.

Observers said it could take several weeks for Russian troops to rest, resupply and regroup before they could launch a new attack in the east.

“Many Russian units withdrawing from northern Ukraine are likely to require major re-equipment and renovation before they are available to redeploy for operations in eastern Ukraine,” said a tweet from the British Defense Ministry.

The Pentagon warned on Monday that a Russian military convoy is heading to eastern Ukraine, towards the town of Izium , in an attempt to send reinforcements to the eastern Donbas region.

“We believe that this is the first stage of an effort by the Russians to strengthen themselves in the Donbas, it is not clear how many vehicles are in this convoy and what exactly they carry,” US Defense Department spokesman John Kirby said at a press conference.

Kirby remarked that it “seems” that this is a combination of soldiers and armored vehicles, “maybe some artillery”, without giving any further details.

But as Kori Schake of the American Enterprise Institute told NPR, regrouping presents its challenges in foreign territory: “Ukrainians have internal lines of communication. They can move troops within their own country. The Russians have to go out and surround [Ukraine], extending mileage in tanks and everything else.”

Ukrainian and Western officials say the Russian plan is to surround tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops in Donbas moving from Izyum, near Kharkov in the north, and from Mariupol in the south.

The timing of the offensive depends on how quickly the Russians end the battle for Mariupol and release those forces for the offensive. It will also depend on how much time is needed to resupply and regroup the troops that were withdrawn from Kiev and other areas of the north.

The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said in an analysis that Russian troops will likely attempt to advance from Izyum to capture the strategic city of Slovyansk and unite with other Russian forces in Donbas in what “will likely be the next fundamental battle of the war in Ukraine.”

Such an eastward shift by Russia marks a “crucial phase of the war”, and further momentum is expected in eastern and southern Ukraine to try to seize the entire Donbas and create a land bridge to occupied Crimea.

During an offensive in the east, Russian forces will face the same problems that hindered their attack in the north.

Maintaining supply lines over long distances under constant Ukrainian attacks was a key challenge that ultimately condemned the bombing in Kiev and forced Moscow to withdraw. Such an operation in the east could prove just as difficult.

The lack of adequate cohesion between the different forces, the inability to completely suppress Ukrainian air defenses and the growing popular resistance to the invasion would probably hamper rapid Russian gains in the east. As they seek to surround Ukrainian troops in Donbas, Russian forces could also face attacks on their flanks.

But Russia did not have a single commander in charge when it attacked Ukraine from the north, east and south. Now, General Aleksandr Dvornikov is in command. He is 60 years old, one of the most experienced Russian military officers and, according to US officials, a commander with a reputation for brutality against civilians in Syria and other war scenarios. There are those who even dare to call him “the Butcher of Syria”.

The fact that one person is in charge will, according to analysts, give more cohesion and order to the Russian attack.

Military success also depends on weaponry. The Ukrainians are lacking weapons, but their allies are supplying them. Slovak Prime Minister Eduard Heger confirmed the dispatch of his S-300 air defense system to Ukraine. It is the second NATO country to dare to make public the delivery of weapons to Ukraine after the Czech Republic assured that it would send tanks.

The S-300 is a Soviet-era long-range surface-to-air missile system that can shoot down cruise missiles and aircraft and can hit targets up to 140 kilometers away. It is considered one of the most powerful anti-aircraft missile systems and is in the arsenal of three NATO countries: Slovakia, Bulgaria and Greece.

And Russia, which is much more supplied than its neighbor, also suffered losses. The Pentagon and European officials estimate that Russia has lost between 20 and 30 percent of the combat force it sent to Ukraine.

Putin urgently needs rapid success in the east to find a way out of the conflict that increasingly looks like a quagmire for Moscow. Time works against Russia, with each day of war worsening the massive economic damage of Western sanctions and depleting its limited resources.

A protracted conflict could force the Kremlin to become widely involved in the use of ill-trained recruits, something it has tried to avoid, claiming that it depends entirely on volunteer soldiers. Sending new recruits into battle would be very unpopular and would likely fuel public discontent.

Putin's goal of freeing Ukraine from so-called “neo-Nazis” has led some observers to predict that he expects rapid progress in the east in order to announce a successful end to the campaign by May 9. That's when Russia celebrates its victory over Nazi Germany in World War II, its most important public holiday.

On the other hand, U.S. Army General Mark Milley testified before Congress last week that the war could go on for years.

Putin still has the military resources to continue the war indefinitely and is likely to continue fighting until he passes the “five stages of grief,” Gideon Rose told NPR.” Denial, anger, negotiation, depression, acceptance. What ultimately has to happen is that Putin has to accept defeat and choose to leave. And that is something that is a psychological process, not just a strategic process.”

(With information from AP)

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