What is the future of the International Space Station in the face of Russia's withdrawal

With the same determination that Russia advanced on Ukraine in an invasion that very few understand, the United States and several countries around the world imposed very severe economic sanctions on Moscow, which threaten, among other things, the operability of the International Space Station (ISS).

Hours later, after President Vladimir Putin's offensive on Ukraine, US President Joe Biden gave a very in which it condemned Russian action and reported the implementation of strong economic sanctions in various spheres, especially space and technology.

“Putin is the aggressor. Putin chose this war, and now he and this country will bear the consequences. Today I authorize heavy additional sanctions and new limitations on what can be exported to Russia. This will be a blow to its ability to modernize its armed forces, which will degrade its aerospace industry, including its space program,” Biden said 45 days ago.

Immediately, the director general of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, Dmitri Rogozin, issued an ultimatum to the United States to lift sanctions against civil companies TSNIimash, mechanical engineering research, and the Rocket Space Center Progress.” “If they block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled exit from its orbit and fall onto the territory of the United States or Europe? Rogozin's threats did not take effect and the sanctions continued.

That is why, this week, Rogozin declared: “We will soon present to the country's leadership Roscosmos' concrete proposals regarding the deadlines for the cessation of cooperation within the framework of the ISS with space entities of the US, Canada, the EU and Japan.”

Russia planned to participate in the ISS until 2024 and was negotiating the possibility of continuing collaboration until 2030. Meanwhile, it seeks to build its own space station and have it operational from 2025. The international response to maintaining economic sanctions made it clear that the question now is not whether or not it continues to participate in the ISS, but when it withdraws from the project.

Faced with the first threats by Rogozin, who had presented his colleagues with an ultimatum to lift the sanctions imposed on Russia after the military offensive in Ukraine by March 31, NASA sought to bring peace of mind to the astronauts and the international space community by stating: “NASA will continue to interact with the corresponding federal entities and US agencies with the aim of maintaining cooperation within the framework of the ERA and its exploitation, including any necessary cooperation of the ERA program with the support of sanctioned companies”.

Rogozin stated that the head of the European Space Agency, Josef Aschbacher, “assumed the role of postman, confirming that he does not take such decisions and therefore will redirect my letter to the EU member countries”. “That is, they propose to wait for the bureaucracy to all 28 countries agree to read Roscosmos's letter,” stressed the director of the Russian space agency.

“By that time, either the donkey stretches its leg, or the ISS dies of natural causes,” he lamented, assuring that the position of Western entities is clear: “They will not withdraw the sanctions.” “Sanctions from the US, Canada, the EU and Japan are aimed at blocking economic and financial financing, and the productive activities of our high-tech companies. I therefore believe that the restoration of normal relations between partners with respect to the ISS and other joint projects will only be possible after the total and unquestionable lifting of illegal sanctions”, warned the Russian director.

Russia's Essential Participation

Russia has repeatedly warned that the station, put into orbit in 1998 and designed to operate for 15 years, would now require a huge injection of money for its maintenance, in order to prevent it from disintegrating into pieces and falling uncontrollably to Earth.

“There is a possibility that this 500-ton structure will fall on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with that perspective? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. Are you ready for it? ”, he warned.

Russia's participation in this space project is so significant that its withdrawal could de facto entail a death sentence for the International Space Station. NASA itself acknowledged that any attempt to separate the US segment from the Russian segment “would pose significant logistical and security challenges given the multitude of external and internal connections, the need to control the inclination and altitude of the spacecraft, and the interdependence of software.” The station has a complex internal and external wiring that make it impossible to separate the modules, which are built to work connected.

The operation of the International Space Station is complex. While the modules in the United States and Europe provide the electrical energy that solar panels collect and serve to make the orbital complex work, Russia provides the fuel and engines that allow it to remain in orbit and not end up falling uncontrollably to Earth.

Rogozin argues that it is impossible to control the ISS without the participation of Russia, since it is the country responsible for the orientation of the station and the forecasting of dangerous collisions, in addition to the supply of fuel and cargo. Orbit corrections of the orbital platform and all propulsions are made with the engines of the Zvezda service module of the Russian segment or with the Progress cargo ships. The end of cooperation will mean, Rogozin pointed out, a serious risk of an uncontrolled departure of the station from its orbit, and a possible fall on the territory of the US, Europe or other countries.

Elon Musk, el salvador

After threats from the director of Roscosmos, the magnate and CEO of the space company SpaceX, Elon Musk, came to the forefront of the controversy over the International Space Station. When Rogozin asked the question about where the ISS would fall, Musk replied with a photo showing the SpaceX logo.

In addition, Musk later clarified to a Twitter user that “Yes”, that from his company they would see to it that a catastrophe of uncontrolled fall did not happen. Musk could send the Dragon capsules to replace the Russian ships that give impetus to the orbital station to maintain proper height and speed.

The International Space Station, ISS, was put into orbit in 1998 thanks to the collaboration of 5 space agencies: NASA from the United States, Roscosmos from the Russian Federation, JAXA from Japan, the Canadian CSA and the European Space Agency, ESA; which included support from 15 countries. And since 2000 it has been permanently habitable.

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