Elections in France 2022: who are the candidates running against Emmanuel Macron

Emmanuel Macron

Acting President Emmanuel Macron is the favorite to win both the first and second rounds of the elections and secure a second five-year term. He has survived the two major crises of his mandate: the “yellow vest” protests and the pandemic. It has also benefited from the war in Ukraine and the “rally around the flag” effect, with a percentage of votes of up to 30%.

The 44th president has campaigned on gender equality, European integration and his strong employment record. However, the rising cost of living, the recent scandal of the McKinsey consultancy and her refusal to participate in television debates with other candidates will not help her image as a distant and elitist “president of the rich”.

Despite a sharp drop in recent polls, Macron remains popular with seniors and the middle classes, two groups that can be trusted to vote even if low turnout is expected.

Marine Le Pen

A candidate for the far right since 2012, Marine Le Pen is the favorite to face President Macron in the second round, as she did in 2017. Moving away from the traditional agenda of the far right and softening its eurosceptic stance, it has wisely campaigned on economic issues and the popular issue of the cost of living, garnering solid support from the working class.

Its proposals include the reduction of VAT and the abolition of income tax for those under 30, as well as a referendum on immigration.

Le Pen's former image of a tough and incompetent leader has been replaced by a softer and more serene figure. He has stood up to Eric Zemmour's challenge, even when key members of his party and even his niece (Marion Maréchal Le Pen) left him to support him. The key question now is whether this new image will be enough to reject a challenge from the far left and reach the second round again.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon

The man who worries Le Pen in his attempt to confront Macron is currently Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The candidate of the radical left party La France Insoumise is enjoying a wave thanks to a strong, and sometimes innovative, campaign. Mélenchon has been rising in the polls to become the strongest outsider. His strong oratory skills, his coherence and the lack of competence on the left have allowed him to position himself as the only credible left option.

This 70-year-old veteran militant comes up with a post-Keynesian program that involves increased public spending and emphasizes environmental policies.

Mélenchon wants to be seen as the voice of disadvantaged suburbs and ethnic minorities. And as a great debater, it will pose a major challenge for Macron if it reaches the television debate that traditionally takes place after the first round.

However, Mélenchon's weaknesses — including his ambiguous position on what to do with Vladimir Putin and the war in Ukraine and his radical economic agenda — have the potential to alienate moderate voters.

Éric Zemmour

The controversial far-right journalist Éric Zemmour was the sensation of the start of the campaign. Presenting himself as the French Donald Trump, he surprised everyone by getting 18% of the vote and seemed to be qualified for the second round.

Zemmour has attracted impressive crowds to his rallies and has even managed to create a new successful political party. But Zemmour's project has quickly come undone thanks to the confusion and controversy surrounding his position on issues such as immigration, gender and the war in Ukraine. Even so, Zemmour and his supporters claim that he is still the candidate to follow on April 8.

Valerie Pécresse

Valérie Pécresse, the conservative candidate of Les Républicains (former President Nicolas Sarkozy's party) is the big disappointment of this campaign. After unexpectedly winning the vote to become the candidate for Les Républicains, at one point it seemed that she could move on to the second round.

However, due to an unbright campaign, the absence of Sarkozy's support and a particularly catastrophic public rally, it has not stopped falling into the polls. Pécresse is now unlikely to win more than 10% of the vote, which clearly leaves her behind the other top contenders.

... And everyone else

Alongside the candidates who have a chance, there are a multitude of others who don't have it. Yannick Jadot, the Greens candidate, is too far from the top candidates to aspire for a spot in the second round. Green parties perform well in France's local elections, but traditionally have difficulties in presidential votes and 2022 will not be an exception, despite global environmental challenges.

Six other candidates are currently below 5% in the polls. Fabien Roussel, the communist candidate, has launched a joyful and positive campaign, in particular defending the French gastronomic heritage. It is estimated that it will get between 3% and 5% of the votes.

Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, the eurosceptic candidate on the right, will try to capitalize on his strong opposition to the government's COVID policy. Jean Lassalle, the iconoclastic deputy of the Pyrenees, who appeared in 2017, claims to be the voice of “authentic France” and the countryside. He'll settle for getting 3% of the votes.

Socialist Anne Hidalgo is the shock candidate in these elections. It is the epitome of the decline of the former Socialist Party in power, and her record as technocratic mayor of Paris - where she is blamed for increasing crime, dirt and traffic jams - has not helped her. Finally, the far left will be represented by two candidates: Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud. It is estimated that both will get only 1% of the votes.

This campaign has provoked frustration, not least because of the lack of proper debates. And a low turnout has long been expected. But it remains an important contest that shows the extent to which the French political landscape is changing and fragmenting, leading to the disappearance of the two large traditional parties. Radical forces thrive on both the left and the right, while the center is now key. Many of the personalities who have driven these changes, such as Macron, Mélenchon and Le Pen, may not come again next time. And while Macron's victory seemed inevitable, surprises are still possible.

By Laurent Binet Professor, School of Modern Languages, University of Newcastle

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