“Lead is what is there”, the Pares report that shows the growth of armed groups during Duque's term of office

In January 2019, a man became famous in Colombia when he uttered the phrase: “It will not be negotiated, lead is what is coming, lead is what is coming”, said by a supporter of the national government in the midst of a march to reject the attack carried out by the ELN on the General Santander Cadet School, on January 17 of that year.

The Pares Foundation's research line on Peace, Post-Conflict and Human Rights decided to take that warning to title its most recent report “Lead is what there is”, which reflects the situation of violence and security since the beginning of Iván Duque Márquez's presidential term in August 2018.

For the foundation, those words were foreboding, because during Duque's term of office, the war in Colombia has intensified. Pares managed to identify three stages of post-conflict, according to indicators of violence and the dynamics of armed groups.

The first situation would be a start of confrontation in 2017, and then move to a stage, between 2018 and 2020, of territorial dispute and reconfiguration, and the last would be armed stabilization by armed groups from 2021 to date. “Iván Duque's period of government has been characterized by the strengthening and expansion of the country's main Organized Armed Groups,” warns the foundation.

Among the results presented by Pares, it is noted that the most violent year since the signing of the Final Peace Agreement was 201, when there were the highest cases of homicides, victims of anti-personnel mines and displacement nationwide, as a result of the intensification of armed confrontations.

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The report also shows that there is a presence of the Gulf Clan in 241 municipalities in the country. While the ELN has an impact on 183, Gentil Duarte's dissidence in 119 municipalities, and the so-called Segunda Marquetalia, with influence in 61. This means that in 37% of the national territory there are organized armed groups.

Regarding the situation of vulnerability experienced by social leaders in Colombia, Pares points out that 2020 was the year in which there was the greatest increase in murders against this population. In Cauca alone, 61 events occurred. This figure was followed by Antioquia with 29 cases and Nariño, with 22. Since 2016, Colombia has consistently ranked first with the most homicides against human rights defenders in Latin America.

In 2020, Front Line Defender assured that Colombia was the country with the most homicides against this population globally. The most affected types of leadership between 2016 and March 2022 were communal ones, followed by indigenous, peasant, community and people of African descent.

With regard to the substitution of illicit crops, agreed in the Final Peace Agreement, the United Nations points out that 92 per cent of hectares of coca that have been forcibly eradicated are reseeded, while in the case of crop substitution, reseeding amounts to only 0.8 per cent. Four departments account for 70% of coca: Norte de Santander, Nariño, Putumayo and Cauca. Tibú (Norte de Santander) is the municipality that concentrates the most coca nationwide.

In the case of illegal mining, the report shows that there is a high concentration and evidence of gold exploitation in areas of operation of armed groups such as the Gulf Clan and the ELN. This illegal economy in turn represents a potential environmental risk due to its development in spaces intended for the protection of natural resources.

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