The last of the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was conclusive. It is necessary to curb greenhouse gas emissions in a very short time to reach the target of 1.5° or 2° Celsius. However, this situation would not be possible if governments maintain, or even promote, the use of fossil fuels. Against this horizon, experts outlined other options. One of them is based on the fact that, by 2025, there will be a peak in emissions, which by 2050 will fall dramatically.
In numbers, global warming is already showing its consequences. According to the United Nations (UN), more than 30 million people were displaced by the aftermath of climate change, and damage from extreme weather events is seen almost daily. It is for this reason, and in view of the fact that the parameters set out in the Paris Agreement would not be reached, but could end in a warming two and a half times the pattern, the last document can be summed up in one word: ultimatum.
“Profound and, in most cases, immediate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in all sectors,” the experts said, noting what should be the next steps for the nations of the world to reach the established limit. At present, the planet is already experiencing warming above 1.1°C and is still increasing. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, although experts also point to methane, which should be reduced by about a third in the next 10 years.
If this course is maintained, by the end of this century, the temperature increase will be 2.8° C. A figure that will impact not only as extreme natural disasters (droughts, floods, heat waves, fires), but also as loss of biodiversity and extinction of species. A situation that “completes the picture of the climate crisis facing humanity.”
For this reason, the experts deployed three scenarios of falling greenhouse gas emissions, always compared to 2019, and their relation to temperature increase:
- In order for the temperature not to exceed 2°C by the end of the century, by 2030 emissions will have to fall by 27% and by 2050 by 63%
- In order for it not to exceed 1.5°C, by 2030 they must fall by 43% and by 2050 by 84%.
- Sharp rise, peak and fall: The third option focuses on a peak above 1.5°C in 2025, a sharp drop of 23% in 2030 and a decrease of 75% by 2050.
Fossil fuels in the spotlight
When it comes to fossil fuel consumption, the numbers are clear: if it is 1.5 degrees, by 2050 global coal use should have fallen by 100% compared to 2019, while oil use should be reduced by 60% and gas by 70%.
Another point put forward by IPCC experts is carbon dioxide capture techniques. Although they clarify that these tools do not replace or compensate for the use of fossil fuels. Because, although they can collaborate to achieve this goal, in the words of scientists, they are still costly and marginal. “They cannot fully compensate for the delay in action in other sectors,” the scientists warned.
“It is time for us to stop burning our planet and start investing in the abundant renewable energy that surrounds us,” said António Guterres, UN Secretary General. In this tone, he stressed the decline in renewable energy costs, with experts pointing out that between 2010 and 2019, prices in solar energy generation fell by 85%, in wind power fell by 55% and for lithium batteries by 85%.
Guterres also pointed out that a change should be made and the subsidy to fossil fuels, which are currently affected by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, should be avoided. “Eliminating fossil fuel subsidies would reduce emissions, improve public revenues and macroeconomic performance, and produce other environmental and sustainable development benefits,” says the IPCC document, although it admits that, in the short term, “distributive effects can be detected adverse "issues for the most vulnerable. They therefore propose to introduce measures of “redistribution of saved income”.
“Electricity systems powered predominantly by renewable energies are increasingly viable,” the IPCC said, noting that “although operational, technological, economic, regulatory and social challenges persist, a variety of systemic solutions have emerged to accommodate large shares of energy renewables in the energy system”.
Another point addressed in this report is the need to abandon the use of fossil fuels for transport. “Electric vehicles powered by low-emission electricity offer the greatest decarbonization potential for ground transportation,” the scientists said. They indicated that if the planet's temperature increase is to be 1.5°C, carbon dioxide emissions from this sector will have to fall by 59% by 2050. Whereas if it is 2°C they should fall by 29%.
“The overall economic benefit of limiting warming to 2 degrees exceeds the cost of mitigation in most of the literature evaluated,” say IPCC experts, while warning that “current development pathways can create behavioral, spatial, economic and social barriers to accelerate mitigation.”
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