The French are called to the polls on Sundays 10 and 24 April. They will arrive with polluted spirits between the consequences of the pandemic and a war on their continent with shocking images. Three days before the first round for the presidential elections in France, the candidates hope to convince with the last breath of their campaigns, some focused on masking their sympathies for Vladimir Putin.
President Emmanuel Macron, who suffers the effects of a late proselytizing outburst, first because of the coronavirus crisis and then because of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, has called for a “general mobilization of wills and action” to go and vote. The margins for a second round are so narrow that anything can happen.
“Don't believe the polls and commentators who tell us it's impossible. That the election has already been played. Which is a formality. Remember, Brexit, the choice that seemed unlikely. Nothing is impossible,” the President of the Republic haranged to the “macronists” at his central event in Paris, warning about the dimension of a tight ending.
The latest polls reflect this scenario of proximity. Especially the ultra-conservative, Marine Le Pen, has cut the gap with the current president, as has the left-wing candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Emmanuel Macron remains at the top of voting intentions in the first round, remaining stable at 27% over the course of a week, but Le Pen and Mélenchon have advanced 1 and 1.5 points respectively, to 20.5 and 16.5%, according to Ipsos Sopra-Steria.
In fourth place, former far-right commentator Eric Zemmour is unscrewing from his threshold to advance two points in a week to 10%. Republican candidate Valérie Pécresse continues to fall (-1) with 8% voting intentions, according to this study for Le Parisien and Franceinfo.
However, in other polls, the ultra-conservative candidate, Le Pen, wins one point on Tuesday, at 23% of voting intentions in the barometers for other newspapers, such as the economic one, Les Echos.
Will the role of the second round of the 2022 presidential elections be similar to that of 2017, that is, between Macron and Le Pen? According to a 2022 Opinion poll conducted by the Elabe institute for the BFMTV, L'Express and SFR news channel and published this Tuesday, the gap is closing between the two finalists of the previous vote, at least in the first round.
The qualification of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, still hypothetical at the moment for the second round, on Sunday, April 24, would cause the outgoing to accumulate 53% of the votes against Marine Le Pen with 47%, stable figures since last week, Elabe notes.
Participation will be another challenge. Elabe's own work points to a significant risk of abstention. Compared to 2017, participation could be significantly lower. Only 62% of those registered on the electoral lists say they are at this stage completely safe going to vote and 13% are considering it seriously. In 2017 in the same period, 68% were sure to vote, which represents a drop of 6 points.
The Rusophile Candidates
After the massacres of civilians in Bouchta, there comes, at least now with greater intensity, the uncomfortable sympathy of certain presidential candidates towards Vladimir Putin. Marine Le Pen, Eric Zemmour and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, although nuanced, have shown “some leniency” towards the head of the Kremlin, a phrase used to describe the position of the republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse
Being a shadow in this election, the name of Vladimir Putin resonates among these three candidates. The most committed, but also the one who has managed to turn her campaign to avoid ballast her attraction, is Marine Le Pen. In addition, since the ultraconservative has its party (RN) in debt to a Russian bank.
Putin and Le Pen have made their proximity public. In another context, before the French elections in 2017, the newly aspiring Elysee met with the Russian president to seal an agreement for a world of strong leaders that included Donald Trump.
The “alliance” with the boss in Moscow has ties with several European countries. The triumph last Sunday of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban copied these features. A far right that has seen in Putin a political and ideological model against the decline of liberal democracies. Along these lines, there may also be Matteo Salvini in Italy or Santiago Abascal in Spain.
But in France, also the former television debater, now ultra candidate Éric Zemmour, prior to the invasion, declared his understanding for the Russian president, recognizing Putin's demands as “totally legitimate.”
Somewhat less visible are the affinities of the left-wing leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Having never declared his admiration for Putin, as his “radicalized” right-wing rivals, he nevertheless accepts certain arguments of Russian ideals. With the annexation of Crimea in 2014, this applicant held responsible for what happened to NATO's mistakes, even calling Putin's operation “good news”.
The last attempt to take off occurred on Sunday when the three candidates had to react to news coming from the city of Bouchta, where more than 300 bodies were discovered there according to Ukrainian authorities, following the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region.
Although she initially hesitated to describe this as a war crime, in the BFMTV study Le Pen, the candidate for National Group said: “An investigation by the UN and possibly by the international criminal court must be urgent at all costs.” And he reacted: “These facts are inadmissible, it is a real barbarity. Those responsible must be strongly condemned morally and diplomatically”, although without direct references to Putin.
The candidate of the Reconquista, Éric Zemmour, was concrete. Regularly accused by his competitors of being in favor of Putin, he made harsh comments on Franceinfo against the Russian leader. “I would tell Vladimir Putin that he is atrocious, criminal, infamous and tarnishes the image of his country,” he said. “I said it from the beginning: Russians at war are capable of the worst horrors,” he added.
Finally, in the face of horror, Mélenchon was distant. While his detractors cast his face to denounce his past complacency with Vladimir Putin, the left-wing leader refutes from afar, when he said: “Nothing can be said or analyzed today in the context of propaganda hysteria about Ukraine and Russia.”
With this scenario, at this time the last meetings and interventions of the official campaign of the candidates to occupy the Elysee Palace for five years are accelerated. Yesterday, Emmanuel Macron was on a trip to Brittany, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon was holding a meeting in 12 cities thanks to a strategy of “holograms”.
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