Poll: technical tie between Gutierrez and Petro in the second round; Fajardo and Rodolfo Hernández do not exceed 10%

The presidential elections will take place on May 29 and the polls have started to come out showing the favorite candidates of citizens to reach the second round. After the consultations it became clear that Gustavo Petro has remained the candidate with the highest intention of votes; and that Federico Gutiérrez, from Team for Colombia, is his biggest rival. This has been confirmed by the results of the surveys of both the National Consulting Center for the Semana magazine and Guarumo and EcoAnalítica, revealed by El Tiempo.

According to the survey conducted by Guarumo, if today were the first presidential round, the winners would be Senator Gustavo Petro, with 34 percent, followed by Federico Gutiérrez, with 25 percent. In third place would be Sergio Fajardo with 9.5% and in fourth place Rodolfo Hernández with 9.3%.

However, in this process and in the second round, unlike other past statistics, in this case the winner would be the representative of Team for Colombia with 43.5 percent of the votes compared to 40.1 percent for Petro.

But that is not definitive because, given the firm's margin of error, this could end in a technical draw, and in addition, 16.4% of voters are still not convinced by any of the proposals because of this percentage 7.4% would vote blank, while 9% do not know or respond.

The growth of the former mayor of Medellín is due to the fact that he is supported by traditional movements in the country such as Radical Change, Party of the U, Conservative Party, among others. On the other hand, it has been openly supported by several members of the Democratic Center although the movement has not revealed who it will ultimately support; and like Gustavo Petro it has met several times with the Liberal Party seeking an alliance.

If we look at the information in a disaggregated way, it can be determined that the former mayor of Bogotá accumulates a large part of his votes on the Atlantic coast, southwest and Bogotá, while Gutiérrez has his voting center in the Antioquia area and the Coffee Region.

It also indicates that despite the support that the former mayors have accumulated, they are not able to have enough support to win definitively in the first round, since they would need at least 10 million votes and this number was not achieved even in the last Iván Duque elections in the second round. In addition, although both have great support from citizens, they generate a large percentage of disapproval.

TECHNICAL SHEET

Legal entity that conducted the survey: Guarumo S.A.S. and EcoAnalytica Measurement and Economic Concepts S.A.S. Legal entity entrusting it: Guarumo S.A.S. and EcoAnalytica Measurement and Economic Concepts S.A.S.

Funding source: Guarumo S.A.S. and EcoAnalytica Measurement and Economic Concepts S.A.S.

General objective: questions about the image of the President's favourability and intention to vote. Universe of study: Colombian men and women over 18 years old, residing in Colombia, except for the so-called former national territories and the San Andrés archipelago, who expressed their intention to vote in the next presidential elections.

Sample design: The sample design is probabilistic. Sample size: 1,865 surveys.

Collection technique: telephone survey. Harvest date: March 30-31 and April 1, 2022. Characters who were investigated: refer to the collection form.

Margin of error: The margin of error is 2.5% with 95% confidence.

Distribution of the sample: the surveys were conducted in the following municipalities: Barranquilla, Bello, Bogotá D.C., Buenaventura, Bucaramanga, Cali, Cartagena, Cienaga, Chia, Cucuta, Dosquebradas, Florence, Fusagasugá, Girardot, Ibagué, Manizales, Medellín, Mesitas, Monteria, Mompox, Neiva, Los Patios, Palmira, Padre Sto, Pereira, Popayan, Riohacha, Rivera, Santa Marta, Sibate, Sincelejo, Soacha, Sogamoso, Soledad, Tunja, Uribia, Valledupar, Villavicencio, Yopal. Sample frames: municipalities National Population Census. Specific questions that were asked: refer to the collection form. Statistician: Gustavo Romero Cruz

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