Poll: Petro wins on all stages, Fico approaches and Fajardo sinks

On May 29, Colombians will be able to exercise their right to vote and choose who will be the next president of the country for the next four years. Two candidates appear as the great electoral opponents to win, Gustavo Petro from the Historic Pact and Federico Gutiérrez of Team for Colombia, who in recent weeks have topped the poll lists in recent weeks. Although the left-wing candidate and senator has a superior margin, it would not be enough to prevail in the first round.

According to the most recent poll conducted by the National Consultancy Center for Semana, elections would be defined in the second round, a scenario in which, although Gustavo Petro leads the voting intention, Federico Gutiérrez would manage to be only three points apart, equivalent to around 315,000 votes. The upcoming presidential elections could, according to polls and studies, be the tightest in the country's history.

According to the media survey, in the first round Gustavo Petro would have 36.5% of the citizens' intention to vote, while Federico Gutiérrez would achieve 24.5%. Although the margin between the two candidates is wide and the Historic Pact candidate has managed to increase the numbers (from 32.1% to 36.5%), it would not be enough to win in the May 29 elections, where he would need 50% plus one vote.

It is important to note that Gustavo Petro is the candidate with the highest increase in the intention to vote in the first round, followed by Gutiérrez. On the other hand, Rodolfo Hernández is third with 10%, Sergio Fajardo from Centro Esperanza is fourth with 8.4% and Ingrid Betancourt is in fifth place with 1.5%, all these candidates reduced their numbers compared to the previous poll.

One of the great news of the poll is that the candidate of the Centro Esperanza coalition, Sergio Fajardo, has not been able to reach double digits and is even surpassed by the former mayor of Bucaramanga who has 10% of the intention to vote in the country, a situation that is not unknown to the collective since in the polls on March 13, was overtaken by Francia Márquez, second in the Historical Pact and today Gustavo Petro's vice-presidential formula.

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According to the survey conducted by Semana and the CNC, the two candidates who would reach the second round are Gustavo Petro and Federico Gutiérrez, who would have to try to add the most votes of the candidates who burned in the first round. In this way, candidate Gustavo Petro would be elected president of Colombia with a voting intention of 43.1%, while Federico Gutiérrez, who would have exponential growth compared to the first round, would achieve 40.1%, which means that the presidency could only be defined by approximately 315,000 votes.

On the stage of the second round between the leaders of the Historical Pact and Team for Colombia, two-thirds of those who voted for other candidates would support Federico Gutiérrez, which is why he manages to have a large increase in voting intention. The former mayor of Medellín would take 54.8% of the votes of Centro Esperanza while Petro would take 25.5% of the votes. Radical Change would go 61.6% with Gutierrez and 22.2% with Petro. And this situation is repeated in the Liberal Party with 54.6% supporting the candidate of the Team for Colombia and 29.4% for the candidate of the Historical Pact. It should be noted that the Democratic Center, the Conservative Party, La U and Mira support Gutiérrez.

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In other possible scenarios, Gustavo Petro would remain in the second round and would be the candidate to win. If he were to reach this instance with Rodolfo Hernández, the leader of the Historical Pact prevails with 42.6%, while the former mayor of Bucaramanga would achieve 36.4%. In the event that these two candidates define the presidential elections in the second round, the number of people who would not vote for either of them would also increase with 12.4% and the blank vote would reach 4.4%.

Sergio Fajardo has repeatedly stated that he is the only candidate who could beat Gustavo Petro in the second round, however, according to the poll carried out, in this scenario he would be surpassed by Gustavo Petro who would win 41.5% of the votes while the former mayor of Medellín would add 38.3%. The Centro Esperanza coalition was the least voted inter-party consultation and Fajardo became a presidential candidate with just 723,475 votes.

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