The future of the International Space Station (ISS) is shrouded in great uncertainty due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the West on the invading country. Now, Roscosmos recalled the ultimatum that gives its partners until Thursday to lift restrictions on the space sector.
“March 31 is the last day that NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) have to respond to our demand that they lift sanctions against two of our civilian companies,” TSNIIMash, from mechanical engineering research, and the Progress Rocket Space Center, said the CEO of Roscosmos, Dmitri Rogozin.
The response will form the basis for the decision on its willingness to extend the life of the international orbital platform until 2030, as well as on the resumption of joint flights with NASA.
At the moment, the Russian Government plans to participate in the ISS until 2024, with the intention of launching its own station afterwards.
In Russia's view, the station, which was put into orbit in 1998 and was to have a useful life of 15 years, would have to be injected “a huge amount of money” to repair it and prevent it from disintegrating “into pieces” by 2030.
SANCTIONS AND COUNTERMEASURES
Western sanctions imposed on Russia place restrictions on the export of goods and high technology with the intention of weakening its strategic sectors, including the military and its aerospace industry.
In response, Russia stopped cooperation with European partners for launches from the Kourou cosmodrome in French Guiana; it stopped supplying rocket engines to the US and demanded that future Roscosmos contracts be charged only in rubles.
Roscosmos also canceled the launch of British OneWeb communication satellites, after the company itself, with government support, ceased the future launch of its Soyuz rocket aircraft from the Russian Baikonur cosmodrome, and signed an agreement with SpaceX, Elon Musk's company.
Rogozin has estimated at $12 billion (€10,938 million) the damage caused to the West by Roscosmos refusing to launch these satellites and supply engines for launch vehicles.
IS THE ISS IMPOSSIBLE WITHOUT RUSSIA?
But Moscow believes that the damage can be much greater in terms of international cooperation in the ERA, which this year will celebrate 22 years of human presence.
The threat that Russia may withdraw from the project raises, in Roscosmos's opinion, a number of questions, especially for the US.
NASA has acknowledged that attempts to separate the US segment from the Russian segment “would pose significant logistical and security challenges given the multitude of external and internal connections, the need to control the inclination and altitude of the spacecraft, and the interdependence of software.”
Rogozin argues that it is impossible to control the ISS without the participation of Russia, since it is the country responsible for the orientation of the station and the forecast of dangerous collisions, in addition to the supply of fuel and cargo.
The orbit corrections of the international orbital platform and all propulsions are made with the engines of the Zvezdá service module of the Russian segment or with the Progress cargo ships.
“If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled exit from its orbit and fall onto the territory of the United States or Europe?” , the general director and former journalist recently asked in a tweet.
“There is a possibility that this 500-ton structure will fall on India and China. Do you want to threaten them with that perspective? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. Are you ready for it? Gentlemen, when you study sanctions, check those who generate them to see if they have Alzheimer's disease,” he said.
AMERICAN ALTERNATIVES
The commercial cargo ship Cygnus of the US company Northrop Grumman is the only ship that “is currently being tested to provide limited capacity for future reactivations,” NASA said recently.
However, for now “it does not have the ability to replace the tilt control functions of the space station or to make suitable propulsions for sustained long-term operations,” he admitted.
Russia's partners “will try to create a replacement for us with their cargo ships, with their manned ships, but this will take years,” Rogozin warned.
Until recently, the Russian Soyuz spacecraft was the only method of transport for NASA astronauts and other internationals after leaving the US in July 2011 their shuttle program.
In May 2020, the first astronauts arrived on the orbital platform in SpaceX's Crew Dragon capsule. And NASA has hired three companies to replenish the ISS: in addition to Northrop Gruman, SpaceX and Sierra Nevada.
The US also has rockets for travel to the ISS, such as SpaceX's Falcon 9, Atlas-5 and Antares, but in the latter two cases Russia no longer supplies the engines used for these launch vehicles.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has said that the US will continue to cooperate with its partners, including Russia, to continue operations in the ISS.
On Wednesday, astronaut Mark Vande Hei will return to Earth aboard the Russian ship Soyuz MS-19.
(with information from EFE)
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