Madeleine Albright's latest op-ed about Vladimir Putin that anticipated Russia's brutality in Ukraine

A day before Vladimir Putin decided on a bloody invasion of Ukraine, one of the most lucid personalities in American diplomacy in recent decades, Madeleine Albright, decided to recall her years as Secretary of State and her first meeting with the Russian head of state in the early 2000s. Albright died this Wednesday at the age of 84, just one month after he wrote an incredible column in The New York Times in which he described not only ambitions tsarists of the former KGB agent, but also his personality that he left reflected in some notes he took on his return to the United States.

Today, the American newspaper remembers that foreboding piece. Albright wrote her article in The New York Times on February 23 in which she refers to her first three-hour meeting with then-new President Putin when she was still an official of the Bill Clinton. Entitled “Putin is making a historical mistake”, the author of books on international politics described the man who has the world on hold for his invasion of Ukraine as a person “cold, almost a reptile”.

That qualification had been written by her on the trip back to Washington, as she drew a detailed profile of the mysterious Russian, whom she only knew was a former member of the KGB who had been stationed in Dresden, East Germany. “Putin is small and pale; so cold that he is almost reptile,” Albright had written his report that winter of the turn of the century to present to President Clinton. “Sitting in front of a small table in the Kremlin, I was immediately struck by the contrast between Putin and his ampulous predecessor, Boris Yeltsin,” he recalled.

“While Yeltsin had cajoled, bragged and flattered me, Putin spoke without emotion and without notes about his determination to resurrect the Russian economy and crush the Chechen rebels. Flying home, I recorded my impressions,” wrote the former Secretary of State in her opinion column this Wednesday. In those valuable notes, which he still has, Albright remarked: “Putin is ashamed of what happened to his country and determined to restore its greatness.” The shame had to do with the fall of the Soviet Union, a collapse that meant the humiliation of the then communist empire and its dismemberment.

Referring to Putin's recent declarations and decisions to recognize Ukraine's separatist regions as independent and decide to invade those areas to cooperate with those forces, the Clinton official said it would be a “historic mistake” for both her political future and Russia. It was only hours before he ordered the invasion and attack against civilian targets, but Albright had a glimpse of what would happen.

“Putin has been trying for years to improve his country's international reputation, expand Russia's military and economic might, weaken NATO, and divide Europe (while bridging a gap between it and the United States). “Instead of paving Russia's way to greatness, invading Ukraine would secure Putin's infamy by leaving his country diplomatically isolated, economically paralyzed and strategically vulnerable to a stronger and more united Western alliance.”

As an immediate result of this invasion, Russia has already begun to suffer sanctions, which for Albright will incur a high cost for the Russians, even though Putin has achieved a seemingly solid internal financial structure. However, can it face a new Cold War? “Putin's actions have triggered massive sanctions, and even more so if he launches a large-scale attack and tries to take over the entire country. These sanctions would devastate not only your country's economy, but also its narrow circle of corrupt cronies , which in turn could challenge its leadership. What will surely be a bloody and catastrophic war will drain Russian resources and cost Russian lives, while creating an urgent incentive for Europe to reduce its dangerous dependence on Russian energy. (That has already started with Germany's move to stop certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.)”

In addition, explains the former head of US diplomacy, a total invasion of Ukraine could lead to an endless war for Putin, with heavy costs in human and economic lives. A new Afghanistan, he says. “Such an act of aggression would almost certainly lead NATO to significantly strengthen its eastern flank and to consider the permanent stationing of forces in the Baltic States, Poland and Romania. And it would generate fierce Ukrainian armed resistance, with strong support from the West. A bipartisan effort is already under way to develop a legislative response that includes intensifying lethal aid to Ukraine. It would not be a repeat of the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014; it would be a scenario reminiscent of the Soviet Union's ill-fated occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s.”

“Although Putin, in my experience, will never admit to making a mistake, he has shown that he can be patient and pragmatic. He is also surely aware that the current confrontation has made him even more dependent on China; he knows that Russia cannot prosper without some ties to the West. 'Of course I like Chinese food. It's fun to use chopsticks, 'he told me at our first meeting. 'But this is a trivial thing. It's not our mentality, it's European. Russia must be firmly part of the West, '” he recalled.

In addition, he referred to the allies that today's Russia possesses, in contrast to how powerful the partners of the West are, whose economies are robust and can afford a - with costs, of course - a long-term wrestling. “Putin must know that a second Cold War would not necessarily be good for Russia, even with its nuclear weapons. There are strong allies of the United States on almost every continent. Putin's friends, for their part, include people like Bashar al-Assad, Alexander Lukashenko and Kim Jong-un.”

“Putin and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, like to say that we now live in a multipolar world. While this is obvious, it does not mean that the great powers have the right to divide the world into spheres of influence as colonial empires did centuries ago,” Albright concluded.

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