The roads that open up before Putin after a month of war in Ukraine

Can Vladimir Putin win the war in Ukraine? The Russian president faces a more difficult situation than he imagined when a month ago he ordered the invasion of the former Soviet Republic, but he is determined to redouble his efforts to achieve its ends, analysts say.

A victory involving total occupation of Ukraine would also confront Putin with other explosive challenges, experts say, who also mention a possible diplomatic exit from the war, with territorial conquests for Russia.

- What war objectives?

These have not changed since the beginning of the invasion, on February 24: to obtain “neutrality” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, that is, to prevent this country from joining NATO.

The Kremlin is no longer necessarily betting on the overthrow of Ukrainian President Volodymir Zelensky, who has become a symbol of resistance to the invasion.

“The initial plan, which probably consisted of a lightning war that would allow the rapid seizure of Kiev and the fall of the Ukrainian government, did not work,” says Marie Dumoulin, a specialist at the European Council for International Relations (ECFR), a think tank on European issues.

Ukrainian resistance complicated Putin's plans, accustomed to swift or forceful military successes, such as in the cases of the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the intervention in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

“Putin is still moving on the assumption that [the war] will not last, that it will end up being imposed by his own military mass, no matter what resistance on the ground,” says Frédéric Charillon, professor of international relations at the French university of Clermont Auvergne and author of “Wars of influence”.

But in the face of difficulties in advancing on the ground and the harsh international sanctions against Russia, Putin “is increasingly heading towards a war of destruction,” he adds.

“The issue is not so much what Putin intends to obtain, but in what way and at what cost,” estimates Tatiana Stanovaya, a researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“It will take time and cause more drama, but he is convinced that he has no options and that he is vested with a historical mission,” consisting of restoring Russian influence areas, he added.

- Winning the war at what cost?

If the Ukrainian army collapses under military pressure in the east, Russia could take control of a country of 40 million inhabitants, with a larger area than Spain, which will serve as a buffer zone against NATO.

But in that case, Russia risks facing an insurrectional situation. “You will have to maintain control of the terrain. And maintaining dominance in an insurrection is very difficult,” Charillon says, recalling that the United States had to deal with that kind of situation in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There are those who fear that Russia will embark on a military escalation, with chemical weapons or attacks on Western convoys of military or humanitarian aid.

“Putin will most likely redouble his efforts and adopt a dirty war strategy to increase the human cost and force Ukrainians to capitulate,” says Dumoulin.

- Are there exit doors? -

If the situation drags on or remains uncertain, Putin can save face by ripping political concessions and territorial gains from Kiev.

“The key to Putin is strength, pressure and victory. He can't go back without getting some trophies,” says Abbas Gallyamov, a Russian independent analyst and former Kremlin speechwriter.

Putin “needs an agreement on Ukraine's neutrality. But that is obviously not enough. It also wants recognition [of the annexation] of Crimea and the [independence of] the pro-Russian separatist republics of Lugansk and Donetsk,” he adds.

And if Ukraine refuses such concessions, Russia could in any case always have conquests in the east, with the essential objective of establishing territorial continuity between the Donbas region, the port of Mariupol, on the Sea of Azov, and southern Crimea.

In that case, “it cannot be excluded that the Russians try to continue the offensive to Odessa, to control the entire Ukrainian coast of the Black Sea,” Dumoulin estimates.

- Putin threatened? -

If the war continues “without the prospect of a quick solution”, tensions could escalate to “a breakdown of the power system in the Kremlin”, according to a note from the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri).

Some analysts even believe that major players in that system, such as certain oligarchs and heads of the security services, could be tempted to stop Putin, or even to overthrow him.

“At the moment, I don't see any such signs in the Russian elite. Even if a party is upset with such a war, it is not willing to rise up against it,” considers, on the contrary, Stanovaya.

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