Dollar, CER-adjusted bonds and fixed terms in UVA, the main havens for savers

The Central Bank, due to the demands of the agreement with the IMF and in order to reduce inflation and avoid the rise of the dollar, increased the benchmark rate by 2 points to 44.5% per annum. The increase continues to keep the rates for the saver in negative terrain because the monthly rate was one point below February's inflation and would be more negative compared to the expected inflation in March.

One sign that the Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, acknowledges this error, is that, in yesterday's bond tender, the Discount Bills were taken pesos at rates of up to 57% per annum.

The Finance Secretariat's debt tender was not a success, due to the absence of shorter-term index bonds. $43,912 million was raised, but a single bond, the Boncer that expires in 2024 - and will be paid by the next Government - raised $19,336 million (almost 45% of the total amount). If you add the $5,182 million of Boncer 2026, between them they won 56% of the offers. It is obvious that private investors are more interested in these securities than fixed or variable rate ones.

Anyway, what was collected was enough to cancel the weekly debt of just over $15 billion and add up a surplus for the strong maturities that are coming.

The increase in rates increases the speed of the huge debt in Treasury pesos, which in 2022 reached almost $5 trillion. With this scenario, investors not only chose CER bonds or UVA deposits, which in 17 days of March grew 7% against 3% of fixed terms, but went to the dollar.

By the increase in GD30 to the detriment of AL30, the bonds used to operate financial dollars, the MEP dollar rose $2.10 to $199.82 and the cash with liquidation, $2.72 to $200.62. The gap, or cable dollar, rose $1 that is by 0.50% a value somewhat higher than 0.25% yesterday.

In the last five rounds, financial dollars rose more than $11 (6.15%). On March 15, the MEP dollar traded at $188.06 and the cash dollar with liquidation at $189.22.

The “blue” followed the opposite path and lost $1 of its value by approaching financial dollars and canceling the “mash” operations that were made when they were cheaper. Some investors were buying financial dollars and reselling them in the “blue” with a profit of almost $12 per dollar until last week.

The solidarity dollar in $190.44 stopped being attractive to savers because the gap with the “blue” is minimal since they pay it at $196. In other words, a solidarity dollar purchase and resale operation in the “blue” leaves a profit of $1,100 per month since the quota is USD 200.

In the wholesale market, the absence of exporters was less felt and the dollar was adjusted 10 cents to $110.07. The Central Bank cut an adverse three-wheel rally where it sold $98 million, and was able to buy $6 million. Reserves rose from USD 1 million to USD 37,019 million.

Although foreign-law bonds fell slightly, country risk rose 3 units to 1,794 points. But the key issue is the behavior of US Treasury Bonds, which, when they fell in price, increased their rate to 2.37%, the highest since May 2019. If the US bonds had not fallen, the increase in Argentine risk would have been greater.

The shares had a positive wheel with a strong turnover of $1,563 million, but with moderate increases. The S&P Merval increased by 1.14% and the most outstanding went through CableVision (+7.82%), followed by Comercial del Plata (+3.57%) and Telecom (+2.70%).

ADRs — stock holding certificates and ETFs listed on the New York Stock Exchanges — operated a high volume of $4.506 million. The highlight went through MercadoLibre, which increased 5.1%.

Today we expect to see the result of the rate hike because the dollar became a buyer when it became known that wholesale inflation in February reached 4.7% and will put pressure on the retail market in March. Today, dollar and indexed bonds and deposits are the haven of local savers and investors. The “carry trade”, betting on deposits in pesos and then returning to the dollar, is in danger.

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