The Government continues to apply controls and markets respond by taking dollars at the official price

Importers and companies take the opportunity to buy at a value they consider to be backward and the BCRA is forced to sell

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Foto de archivo ilustrativa de
Foto de archivo ilustrativa de un empleado de una casa de cambio en El Cairo sosteniendo un fajo de billetes de 100 dólares. Mar 20, 2019. REUTERS/Mohamed Abd El Ghany

At the close of the market, a final MEP dollar trade marked a non-representative price that almost equaled it with the liquidated spot, but the final difference was 50 cents, which marks a very low cost for the cable dollar. That 50-cent gap is the cost of putting the dollars in an overseas account.

Throughout the day, cash with liquidation was 20 cents more expensive than MEP and by the time they closed the trade the difference had stretched to 60 cents, although some managed it to 0.40. What you need to watch carefully are the immediate cash quotes, which is where all these businesses are done. Within 24 and 48 hours, the market loses liquidity.

At this level, the dollar is cheap and they are giving away the exchange of the MEP dollar for cable, meaning that leaking money abroad has almost no additional cost, when in times of greatest uncertainty the gap was between 8 and 10%.

The gap between financial dollars was approached amid a rise in the MEP dollar from $1.12 to $197.92 and a rise of $2.83 for the spot with settlement to $198.20.

The end of the round showed a more real rearrangement of the dollars that govern the economy. The rise was important, but the most important thing is that the cable increased, the cost of turning dollars abroad. It was a minimal increase, but it serves to normalize a place totally altered by the lack of approval of the agreement with the IMF and by inflationary problems. The “blue” dollar in turn dropped 50 cents to $202, after trading to $203.

But the collateral damage continues. The Government, in its attempt to control prices, raising withholdings and setting up trusts to subsidize items in the family basket, is paying the cost in foreign exchange it will need in the near future to comply with the IMF agreement on the volume of freely available reserves.

In the wholesale market, where the dollar rose 27 cents to $109.27, with an excessively lower adjustment to expected inflation, the Central Bank ended up selling $49 million. In three days in this square it lost USD 97 million due to the demand of importers and companies to pay debts abroad. Everyone wants to take advantage of this backward and cheap dollar. As a result, the reserves lost USD 5 million and stood at USD 37,018 million. The rise in gold saved the Central from a greater fall.

Debt bonds remain unaffirmed, but the cause originated in the United States and affected all emerging countries, because the fall in US Treasuries caused their rate of return to 2.315% (+7.77%) to March 2019 levels. Of course, the gap with local titles widened and the country risk added 5 units to 1,791 basis points. The emerging countries (EMS) ETF lost 0.75%.

The actions had a good wheel. Business grew to $1,509 million and the leading index, S&P Merval, rose 1.10%, but in dollars it lost 0.10% due to the increase in the currency in the financial market. However, leading stocks earn 8.5% in dollars so far this year and 3.7% in March.

The sharp rise in oil of more than 7%, which brought a barrel of crude oil above USD 112, favored hydrocarbon-related stocks. YPF led the hikes with 5.13%, followed by Pampa Energía with 3.26% and Cresud with 2.85%.

ADR's — stock holding certificates and ETFs listed on the New York Stock Exchanges — traded a meager volume of $2,623 million. Tenaris (+4.84%), YPF (+4.34%) and Ternium (+3.14%) were the big winners. All three certificates are related to the oil industry.

Today, the reaction and normalization of the gaps between financial dollars are expected. The publication of the increase in the fiscal deficit in February, the month in which there was no war, is a matter of concern because subsidies increased by 90%. Retirements were the opposite because they grew 60.5% below year-on-year inflation. Expenditure growth increased 60.5% and expenditures grew by 70%.

Despite these numbers, which may worsen after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Government continues to appeal to subsidies to control prices. Markets respond by taking official dollars. This daily food that the Central Bank makes to the wholesale market is unsustainable and will be reflected in the next rounds of the financial center.

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