Spain's turn on the Sahara, a risky decision

The president of the Spanish government, Pedro Sánchez, has raised internal criticism and Algeria's indignation at the change of the historical position on Western Sahara, a former Spanish colony, in order to rebuild relations with Morocco, but without obtaining great guarantees from Rabat.

- From one diplomatic crisis to another -

By supporting for the first time publicly the Moroccan proposal for autonomy for the former Spanish colony, Madrid, which until now defended its neutrality, has made the gesture that Rabat hoped to end a major diplomatic crisis.

Provoked by the reception in Spain in April of the leader of the Saharawi independence movement, the Frente Polisario, to be treated for Covid, this dispute had led to the arrival in mid-May of more than 10,000 immigrants to the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, thanks to a relaxation of controls on the Moroccan side. At that time called by Rabat, the Moroccan ambassador to Spain did not return to Madrid until this Sunday.

In exchange for its shift on the Sahara, a national cause in Morocco, Madrid assures that it can count on Rabat's “cooperation” in the “management of migration flows”, which is the central motive of this agreement.

“Spain knows from experience that when relations with Morocco are good, migrant arrivals drop dramatically,” said Eduard Soler, an expert in North Africa at the Center for International Relations in Barcelona (CIDOB).

But “whatever guarantees Spain may have had in that regard”, “it cannot be taken for granted that they will last,” warned Irene Fernández Molina, professor of international relations at the British University of Exeter.

The Spanish government also maintains that the agreement with Morocco guarantees its “territorial integrity”, referring to Ceuta and Melilla, two Spanish enclaves in Moroccan territory on which Rabat would have placed its claims.

It is striking that the change of historical position in Spain was revealed by Rabat, contrary to diplomatic practices and customs, probably “with some intention”, said Isaías Barreñada, professor of international relations at the Complutense University of Madrid.

Algeria, the main support of the Frente Polisario, the Saharawi independence movement, responded to Madrid's decision by calling its ambassador to Spain for consultations, and opening a diplomatic crisis of uncertain scope.

- Is the gas in danger? -

Algeria is one of the main suppliers of gas to Spain, which is now exposed to particularly dangerous reprisals in the midst of rising energy prices, accentuated by the war in Ukraine.

However, Enric Bartlett Castellà, a professor at the Esade business school, considers it “unlikely” that Algiers will cut off or reduce supplies taking into account “current gas prices”, and because “fulfilling signed contracts” is essential to its credibility.

But Algeria could in the medium term review its relations with Madrid and reserve its surplus production for other countries, Barlett warned, forcing Spain to use other, more distant and more expensive suppliers.

“Algeria is a very important partner for Spain that has been providing us with stability in the gas supply and will continue to provide it in the future,” Economy Minister Nadia Calviño said Monday.

Spain recently reduced its dependence on imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Algeria, forced by the closure, by Algiers, of a gas pipeline passing through Morocco, in the context of the crisis between the two Maghreb countries.

“Before, almost 50% of gas imports into Spain came from Algeria, but in January, Washington surpassed Algiers as the first supplier, with 30% of imported gas, against 28% for Algeria,” said Gonzalo Escribano, a researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute in Madrid.

- General political quarrel -

In Spain, Pedro Sánchez's turn has created unrest in the ruling coalition. In favor of the self-determination of the Saharawis, their allies from Podemos (far left) denounced the “opacity” of this “incoherent” decision, by the voice of Labor Minister Yolanda Díaz, who, however, assured that they will not break with the government.

The truth is that these new tensions with Podemos come at a delicate time for Sánchez, in full social discontent in the face of record inflation.

The turn on the Sahara has been denounced by all political groups.

The leader of the opposition, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, of the (conservative) Popular Party, reproached Sánchez for having alone changed a state policy standing since the Spaniards left the Sahara in 1975.

“A drastic change in foreign policy cannot be decided by a government,” Feijóo said, saying that “swerving without sufficient support is reckless.”

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