While the world has its sights set on Ukraine, mediators are working to prevent the political blockade in Libya from degenerating into a new war in this North African country, where Russia plays a key role.
Libya, a victim of divisions between rival institutions in the east and west, has had two governments since the beginning of March, as happened between 2014 and 2021, when it was in the midst of civil war after the overthrow of the Muammar Gaddafi regime in 2011.
Former Interior Minister Fathi Bachagha's government, approved by the eastern parliament, is in competition with another government in Tripoli, formed under UN-sponsored political agreements and led by Abdelhamid Dbeibah, which refuses to give up power.
Bachagha formed his government thanks to an alliance with the strong man of the east, Khalifa Haftar, Russia's main ally in Libya, where he has the military support of mercenaries of the Kremlin-linked Wagner group.
On March 10, pro-Bachagha armed groups took positions near Tripoli against the acting executive, raising fears of the resumption of hostilities and the end of the ceasefire that has barely been held since October 2020.
- “Losing bet” -
“Bachagha opted for the politics of faits accompli, convinced that with the confidence of parliament (...) he could easily overthrow the government supported by the international community,” says Khaled al Montaser, professor of international relations at the University of Tripoli.
“But he soon realized it was a losing bet,” he added.
UN Secretary General's Envoy for Libya Stephanie Williams and US Ambassador Richard Norland had to engage in intense diplomatic activity to extinguish the fuse following the mobilization of pro-Bachagha armed groups.
Since then they have tried to promote a negotiated way out of the crisis.
Last week, the major powers of the Security Council were cautious at a UN meeting on this crisis, without taking sides. Only Russia openly supported the new executive, an attitude rejected by the Tripoli government.
“The Libyan Executive is facing a crisis that could, if not resolved, lead to instability and parallel governments in the country,” warned Rosemary DiCarlo, UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, at the opening of the Security Council session.
“The international community, and especially the United States, do not want the conflict in Libya to resume, especially in the current context of the Russian-Ukrainian war,” said political analyst Faraj Al-Dali.
Although few diplomats believe that Russia will decide to pressure Haftar to forcibly install the Bachagha government in Tripoli, some analysts suggest that Moscow could try to disrupt oil production in Libya — 1.2 million barrels a day — and keep the market under pressure.
Groups loyal to Haftar last week threatened to close oil terminals in the east, just as industrialized countries are pressuring OPEC members, of which Libya is a part, to increase production to ease the market.
“Such a blockade would undoubtedly serve Russia's interests, as it would further increase oil prices,” said Wolfram Lacher, Libyan expert at the German SWP institute.
According to Montaser, professor of international relations, recourse to the military option is “theoretically possible” for Bachagha, since he can count on influential armed groups in the west of the country.
But that would be like “signing the death sentence” of his own government with “an armed conflict that could last months or even years,” he warned.
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