Invasion of Ukraine affects the supply of cereals

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Russian invasion of Ukraine could alter the way Ed Kessel manages his farm in a peaceful region of western North Dakota.

Around the world, farmers like Kessel are deciding whether to change their planting patterns to increase their wheat production now that the war suspends or leaves in doubt the grain supply of an area called “the granary of the world.”

Ukraine and Russia are responsible for one-third of wheat and barley exports, which countries in the Middle East, Asia and Africa depend on to feed millions of people who survive thanks to subsidized bread and cheap noodles. They are also strong exporters of other cereals and sunflower seed oil used for cooking and food processing.

Kessel says he could plant more wheat and take advantage of high prices — they have risen by a third since the invasion — helping to offset losses from a drought and the rising cost of fuels. But without running out.

“Honestly, we might find it helpful to plant a couple more acres of wheat and sunflowers,” said Kessel, who is vice president of the North Dakota Grain Growers Association.

There is an expectation as to whether large cereal countries such as the United States, Argentina, Canada, France and Australia will be able to rapidly increase their production. Farmers, however, face another year's prospect of droughts, the high cost of fuels and fertilizers, and disruptions to supply chains as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. They are also bound by factors such as export constraints and the rules governing planting.

This creates uncertainty in countries like Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Iran, Ethiopia and others that don't produce all the wheat, barley, corn and other grains they need. The war raises the possibility of food shortages and political instability in countries that depend on grain imports.

Any increase in export cereal production “is unlikely to compensate for the decline in Black Sea supplies in the current season,” the International Grain Council said in its March report.

Half of the grains purchased by the World Food Programme to feed 125 million people worldwide come from Ukraine. The combination of a rise in prices and a decline in wheat supplies due to the war threatens to provoke “a catastrophe not only in Ukraine, but possibly in the world,” said the director of the United Nations food assistance programme.

“It will affect millions and millions of people, especially in the world's poorest countries,” David Beasley told the Associated Press in the Ukrainian city of Lviv last week when visiting a refugee center.

The impact of sanctions imposed on Russia, the main exporter of wheat and fertilizers, is not clear. Ukraine exports large quantities of corn, rye, oats and millet. The Black Sea region is also a major producer of grain used to feed livestock worldwide.

Australia and India have already increased their grain exports, but few could do the same in the short term, mostly because of droughts, according to Arnaud Petit, executive director of the International Grain Council.

The United States, for example, produced about 44 million tons of wheat in the 2021-22 season. Two years ago, it produced 50 million tons.

Argentina, Canada and Australia may try to increase their wheat production in the mid-2023 season, but it is too early to tell their farmers to change their planting patterns to produce more grains like wheat.

“Most farmers have already planned their crops and are likely to stick to those plans,” said Doug Martin, a farmer from Manitoba, Canada.

On the other hand, “there are other grains that will also yield good profits,” Martin added, referring to crops such as oats, canola and barley

Australia had a good production this season, but it already sold all its wheat until September, according to authorities.

Argentina faces a similar situation. Ninety-five percent of their current harvest has already been sold.

Jorge Josifovich, a farmer in Pergamino, one of the richest agricultural areas in Argentina, says that despite rising prices, farmers may not be motivated to plant more grain because of the high cost of fertilizers and fuels, combined with “strict price controls imposed by the government on producers which they sell to exporters of the grain they grow”.

Tom Bernhardt, a farmer from Linton, North Dakota, said that direct-seeding farmers like him will not alter their crop rotation too much to plant more wheat because that can lead to problems with soil and weeds. In addition, there is no guarantee that high wheat prices will continue.

“I never planted more hectares just to take advantage of high prices,” said the 61-year-old farmer.

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Karnowski reported from St. Paul (Minnesota) and Gillies from Toronto. Susie Blann (Lviv, Ukraine), Oleg Cetinic (Chemiré-le-Gaudin, France), Almudena Calatrava (Buenos Aires) and Rod McGuirk (Canberra, Australia) collaborated in this office.