“It was time to vote for Fico or for Petro”: Germán Vargas Lleras's reasons for not running for the presidency

For some, such as former vice president Germán Vargas Lleras, the presidential runoff is already defined between Federico Gutiérrez or Gustavo Petro; and on that election scene in the coming months, the head of Radical Change based his seemingly sung decision not to make his own candidacy for the presidency of the Republic.

With a new use of the song El Guerrero by Yuri Buenaventura, Vargas Lleras fueled the range of presidential candidates a week before the interparty consultations. A commercial lasting more than two minutes with his individual achievements, in a campaign tone, was for voters the announcement of his candidacy.

A decision awaited by several members of Cambio Radical, such as Senate head David Luna, who in his emotion announced it before it was taken and was scolded; but which was confirmed by the registration, on the last day of the deadline in the Registrar, of Germán Córdoba's candidacy in order to change it to Vargas Lleras if the accounts gave them the opportunity to compete. In the end, Cordoba quietly retired last Friday.

Through his Sunday column in the newspaper El Tiempo, the former vice president explained what were the conditions he evaluated in the current electoral landscape in order to finally decide that he will not be a candidate and to withdraw Germán Córdoba, on March 18, from registration.

Although the decision not to launch was considered to have responded to the legislative results of the Radical Change lists, for Vargas Lleras “it was to be expected.” According to him, the party has ranged from 7 to 16 senators in the last 20 years. However, last Sunday he attributed it to the absence of the Aguilars, a reduction in the electorate of Casa Char and the retirement of Germán Varón Cotrino.

He also argued that the unpopularity of the government paid a costly toll on Cambio Radical, but also to the Democratic Center that had 13 seats, as well as the U that won 10, along with the Christian parties that were left with 4.

“The vote for the single party logo was over 147,000 votes. But, as is easy to understand, the final result of the votes for CR and that of the consultations for those who participated do not give any room to think about my candidacy,” wrote Vargas Lleras.

For the former vice-president, the undisputed winners of the consultations were Gustavo Petro with more than 5.5 million votes and Federico Gutiérrez with more than 2 million votes, which he attributed “to the determined support of the Government and the Democratic Center”.

On the other hand, for Sergio Fajardo, the results did not deserve recognition from Vargas Lleras, who predicted a difficult time for the candidate of the Centro Esperanza Coalition. “It will be a torture for the teacher to wage this campaign,” said the head of Radical Change, because according to him the useful vote will prevail, the other variable in his equation not to be a candidate.

The useful or strategic vote has been analyzed by electoral theory as the informed decision of the voter, who evaluates among his favorite candidates and chooses to vote for the one who is most likely to affect the results; rather than a candidate with whom he is better off, but who does not have many electoral options.

According to Vargas Lleras, this is how the votes will move in the next elections, so entering the campaign at this time would not have any results, because the favorites are already defined. “The game ended last Sunday. It was time to decide between Petro and Fico”, concluded Vargas Lleras.

“I have lived in my own flesh what this means. To see how all the spaces are closed and how nothing that is proposed or said finds an echo in the opinion. Thus, it is impossible to think about candidacies, let alone at this point in the party,” said the former vice president, who lost support in the 2018 elections in a dispute between Petro and Iván Duque.

Its forecast is confirmed by the National Consultancy Center poll for Semana magazine, in which Rodolfo Hernández has already moved to third place and Petro and Gutiérrez are leading the intention to vote with a 10% or more advantage over the others and a difference between the two of them of the same percentage.

KEEP READING: