Will oil prices fall internationally, or will it affect Peru's fuel costs?

A few days ago, the price of a barrel of oil reached $140. It was because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, recently adjustments have been made at the national level, and they are under 100 dollars. I've paginated it. Does it mean that the price of gasoline and gas, which has undergone a significant rise in Peru, will improve slightly?

Pedro Gamio, former Minister of Energy, graphs the topic with the phrase: “The price goes up the elevator and goes down the stairs.” In an interview with Canal N, he explained that although the upward trend in the international market was very strong, it has fallen somewhat in recent years. However, the country is experiencing a tremendous rise.

“There is a relative improvement in the international market, but it is known that it will not last as long as the problem of insufficient supply arising before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine becomes more serious,” said Gamio.

For experts, we are facing a picture that structural trends make us believe that it is not impossible to offer a price of $200 or $300 per barrel of oil, as some analysts have envisioned.

Especially if you follow this spiral. “This can aggravate the conflict and lead to a very complex scenario. The likelihood that Russian President Vladimir Putin will give up is ideal, but because he does not believe it. I think it will be very complicated.” He said.

How should Peru face a bigger rise?

Gamio argues that the potential for an increase in oil should prepare an internal agenda and see how it can help Peruvians who cannot afford such a high price based on what is going to happen in the world. This is because the increase so far is reflected in the Northern Hemisphere. In Europe, but we haven't seen them here with the power to come.

“The way out is to make a tremendous effort to help the poorest people through direct grants under its own name FICE and to do the same with natural gas, but if there are no qualified technicians and what happens in Petroperú, the forecast is reserved.” said the expert.

Could it be lacking?

Gamio was also questioned last January about possible fuel shortages in Peru due to sanctions faced by the La Pampilla refinery owned by Repsol due to oil spills in the Peruvian Sea.

He pointed out that the Ministry of Environment has reflected on the subject and has already approved the operation of the terminal.However, it is still insufficient because “when prices are high and when Peru does not have such a large or elaborate logistics chain, La Pampilla refinery must be financially sanctioned so as not to jeopardize the supply chain”.

He pointed out that it is necessary to assess whether lepsol, which holds a quarter of the derivatives storage consumed by the state, can be fully approved. Gamio reinforces his opinion by ensuring that there is always a tendency to speculate when prices soar. Therefore, it is recommended that countries with logistical capabilities operate without restrictions.

He added that the situation could be complicated because today there are rough waves that occur quite a lot due to climate change, and only one terminal at the La Pampilla refinery is in operation.

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