Why the Bahrain Grand Prix will be the most unpredictable race in the last years of Formula 1

Formula 1 is facing a new era with the release of technical regulations that changed the aerodynamic appearance of cars by 80 percent and a return to the ground effect after 40 years. Radical modifications have done the hard work of teams since 2019, when changes were announced. This weekend, at the beginning of the season, it could be a lottery and even Lewis Hamilton warned that since 2014 the reference team Mercedes is not ready to fight for the victory.

Every time F1 issued a technical regulation, the expectation was high as it represented a rebirth for everyone. This championship started years ago when the first digital concepts were created and that future has come. The one who squeezes the most of the norms and has already gone to the limit - or has exceeded it - may be a step forward.

It was eight years ago when the Maxima underwent another drastic change with the beginning of a hybrid era, something unprecedented in the category with an electric motor and another combustion engine. The one who developed this technique best was Mercedes and that allowed Hamilton to win six of his seven crowns with the German team, which last year also won his eighth Constructors' title beyond the anointing of Max Verstappen in the pilot title. To try to open the game, the company that is in charge of the category, Formula One Management (FOM) and the International Automobile Federation (FIA) have worked on this brand new regulation that allows you to see new cars.

Most of the aerodynamic attachments disappeared and the cars looked cleaner in terms of aesthetics, since new 18-inch tires were added to replace 13-inch tires. This would allow less heat of the rubber, greater grip on the track and, therefore, better performance in cars, which would change the strategies of pit stop.

While the Hamilton-Verstappen duel stole attention and provided a relentless fight until the last lap of 2021, the goal was to make the race more entertaining in terms of fighting for the tip. There should not be only two or four drivers with a chance of winning. For this, it was necessary to implement options, such as the return of the ground effect, which is a system that allows the car to travel close to the floor, gain speed in the corners and facilitates overtaking it.

But only three teams, Ferrari, Williams and McLaren, know this system that ran until the end of 1982 and with completely different cars. There are some engineers of the time who are still there, like Neil Otley, who is now at McLaren, also worked at Williams and Carlos was Alberto Rutman's track engineer. Although hundreds of hours of simulation were performed in the wind tunnel, the first tests in Montmelo detected a rebound effect on the cars and was evident in the long main straight. It originated from the small space left to pass under the chassis.

It was a paradigm break, because of the millions of people who manage F1: since this season there is a limit of 142.4 million dollars per year per team except for the salaries of drivers and chief engineers. Digital devices, developments in workshops that are similar to NASA's base, could not be against a system that has changed the air intake and the focus for these hours is that cars have as little turbulence as possible.

In this way, to achieve better air flow, a lot of work was done on the pontoon, which is the lateral part of where the pilot is located. But as each team presented their solution, it is a reshuffle and re-giving. Argentina said, “We need to see who will be the fastest in Bahrain qualifying and race Engineer Enrique Skalabroni in a chat with Infobe. Technicians worked at Williams, Ferrari and Lotus.

With the innovations in each car, each one wanted to know what the other had. Pictures of Hamilton spying on Red Bull in Barcelona, home of the first rehearsal, went viral and Sebastian Vettel (Aston Martin) was watching Mercedes in Bahrain. “Why are the pontoons on this one more wavy or why he hardly has them?” Those were questions that abounded and the answer was nothing more than the trial and error of each squad whose cars would change their physiognomy during the year.

According to the time observed in previous tests in Bahrain, due to these developments and how the category is being renovated, current cars are three seconds slower than last year. On the same track, Verstappen set the best qualifying time in 2021 with 1m28s997 and in the 2022 tests he applied 1m31s720 with ultra soft tires that have the best grip on the asphalt and provide better traction and speed.

But striking was that with the Haas F1 team car Mick Schumacher won the second best time with 1m32s241 (soft tyre) and his new partner Kevin Magnussen was in tenth place in 1m33s207 (same compound). It should be noted that his team had one more hour on Friday afternoon and two more hours on Saturday afternoon to not arrive in time for the tour on Thursday morning. They had better asphalt conditions. However, both are one of the two teams with the least budget and the future of the American team is unknown in view of the departure of its most important sponsor awarded today by Mazepins due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

And Hamilton? They had to be found in the 16th place (1m34s141). “At the moment, I don't think we're competing for victory. Obviously, next week we will have a better presentation... But people will be surprised, perhaps,” said Sevenfold in a conversation with Autosport. Although it is worth remembering that the English usually open the umbrella in these cases or praise the performance of their rivals for whom the pressure increases and practices psychological battles. His brand new partner, George Russell, was the fifth (1m32s759). So what is the reality of the German team? Is Mercedes or Hamilton hiding anything?

Red Bull revolutionized the previous one with its RB18 with its large cut under the pontoon “move the air from the top of the wing to cool and the rest of the flow will increase the ground effect. They really went too far,” another Argentine engineer, Sergio Rheinland, explained in a chat with this medium , when the details released cars were analyzed in Barcelona, which was the first time that in 2022 all the teams were together on one track.

While Ferrari achieved the third fastest time with Charles Leclerc (1m32s241) and showed engine improvements, everything is too early for Typhos to get excited about fighting for victory again.

The crowd that appears is McLaren, which recovered financially in recent seasons, the return of the Mercedes engine gave him a leap in quality, finished third in the Constructors' World Championship in 2020 and won by Daniel Ricciardo in 2021, who won in Monza, Italy.

Finally, there is an important issue that will take place in the pace of the race and with new cars in several laps. One thing is the test and another is a real competition in which it will be demonstrated what the real degradation of the new tires is and how drivers face rebounds in cars during so many intervals, something that engineers will have to correct.

F1 has become a game of chess in recent years, because a good strategy can be worth a win and this weekend will be the first game. Radio messages in which some give signals for a false problem or hasty changes in the potholes to trick the opponent are already common. There is no favorite for the first time in eight years, at least for this start in Bahrain. With a new regulation in which drivers are just adapting to cars, the picture shows that not everyone has shown what they have and kept their best cards for the right move.

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