Why the Bahrain Grand Prix will be the most unpredictable race in the last years of Formula 1

Formula 1 faces a new era with the release of technical regulations that changed the aerodynamic appearance of cars by 80 percent and the return of the ground effect after 40 years. The radical modifications have led to the hard work of the teams since 2019, when the changes were announced. This weekend, at the start of the season, it could be a lottery and even Lewis Hamilton warned that Mercedes, the reference team since 2014, is not ready to fight for victories.

Every time F1 released a technical regulation, the expectation was higher because it represented a rebirth for everyone. This championship started years ago when the first digital concepts were made and that future has arrived. The one who squeezes the norms the most and has already gone to the limit - or has exceeded it - may be one step ahead.

It was eight years ago when the Máxima underwent another drastic change with the beginning of a hybrid era, something unprecedented in the category with an electric motor and another combustion engine. The one that best developed this technology was Mercedes and that allowed Hamilton to win six of his seven crowns with the German team, which last year still won his eighth Constructors' title beyond the consecration of Max Verstappen in the Pilots title. To try to open the game, the company that is in charge of the category, Formula One Management (FOM) and the International Automobile Federation (FIA) worked on this brand new regulation that allows you to see new cars.

Most of the aerodynamic attachments disappeared and the cars looked cleaner in terms of aesthetics, as the new 18-inch tires were added to replace the 13-inch tires. This will allow less overheating of the rubber, greater grip on the track and, therefore, better performance in cars, which will change the strategies of pit stops.

While the Hamilton-Verstappen duel stole the attention and provided a relentless fight until the last lap of 2021, the goal was to make the races more entertaining in terms of the fight for the tip. Let there be not only two or four drivers with a chance of winning. For this, it was necessary to implement alternatives, such as the return of the ground effect, which is a system that allows the car to travel close to the floor, gain speed in corners and that this facilitates overtaking.

But only three teams, Ferrari, Williams and McLaren, know this system that ran until the end of 1982 and with completely different cars. There are few engineers of that time who are still there, such as Neil Oatley, who is now at McLaren, also worked at Williams and was the track engineer of Carlos Alberto Reutemann. Although hundreds of hours of simulation were carried out in the wind tunnel, the first tests in Montmeló detected a rebound effect on the cars and was evident in the long main straight. This was generated by the little space left for air to pass under the chassis.

It was a paradigm break, because of the millions that F1 manages: since this season the limit is 142.4 million dollars per year per team except for the salaries of the drivers and that of the main engineers. Digital tools, developments in workshops that are similar to a NASA base, could not against a system that changed the air intake and the focus for these hours is that cars have as little turbulence as possible.

In this way, in order to achieve better air flow, a lot of work was done on the pontoons, which are the lateral parts of where the pilot is located. But as each team presented its solution, this is a shuffle and give again. “We need to see who will be the fastest in the Bahrain qualifying and in the race,” said Argentine engineer Enrique Scalabroni in chat with Infobae. The technician worked at Williams, Ferrari and Lotus.

With the innovations in each car, each one wanted to know what the other one had. The photos of Hamilton spying on the Red Bull in Barcelona, home of the first rehearsals, went viral and Sebastian Vettel (Aston Martin) looking at the Mercedes in Bahrain. “Why are the pontoons on this one more undulating or why does he hardly have them?” Those were the questions that abounded and the answer was nothing more than the trial and error of each squad whose cars will change their physiognomy during the year.

Due to these developments and how the category is being reinvented, according to the times seen in the last tests in Bahrain, the current cars are three seconds slower than last year. On the same track, Verstappen set the best qualifying time in 2021 with 1m28s997 and in the 2022 tests he put 1m31s720 with ultra soft tires that are the ones with the best grip on asphalt and provide better traction and speed.

But what was striking was that Mick Schumacher with the Haas F1 Team car won the second best time with 1m32s241 (soft tires) and his new partner, Kevin Magnussen, was tenth in 1m33s207 (same compound). It should be noted that his team had one more hour on Friday afternoon and two more hours on Saturday afternoon to make up for not having arrived in time to tour on Thursday morning. They had better asphalt conditions. However, both are in one of the two teams with the least budget and the future of the US team is unknown in view of the departure of their most important sponsor provided by the Mazepins, out today because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

And Hamilton? He had to be found in 16th place (1m34s141). “At the moment, I don't think we're in competition for victories. Obviously, next week we will have a better presentation... but people will be surprised, perhaps,” said the Sevenfold in dialogue with Autosport. Although it is worth remembering that English usually opens the umbrella in these cases or praises the performance of their rivals to whom the pressure moves and exercises a psychological battle. His brand new partner, George Russell, was fifth (1m32s759). So what is the reality of the German team? Is Mercedes or Hamilton hiding something?

Red Bull with its RB18 revolutionized the previous one with its large cuts under the pontoons “take the air from above the wing to cool and the rest of the flow will enhance the ground effect. They really went far,” explained another Argentine engineer, Sergio Rinland, in a chat with this medium, when the details of the cars released were analyzed in Barcelona, which was the first time that all the teams were together on a track in 2022.

Whereas Ferrari achieved the third fastest time with Charles Leclerc (1m32s241) and showed an improvement in the engine, but everything is too early for the typhoses to be excited about fighting for a victory again.

The one who appears crouched is McLaren, who in recent seasons recovered economically, the return of the Mercedes engines gave them a leap in quality, finished third in the Constructors' World Championship in 2020 and returned to victory in 2021 by Daniel Ricciardo, who won in Monza, Italy.

Finally, there is a key issue that will happen with the new cars in the race pace and over many laps. One thing is the tests and another is a real competition in which it will be demonstrated what the real degradation of the new tyres is and how drivers cope with the rebounds in the cars during so many laps, something that engineers will have to correct.

In recent years F1 has become a game of chess, since a good strategy can be worth a win and this weekend will be the first game. Radio messages in which some allude to a false problem or a hasty change in the pits to baffle the rival are already common. For the first time in eight years there are no favorites, at least for this start in Bahrain. With a new regulation in which drivers are just adapting to cars, the picture shows that everyone did not show what they have and kept their best cards for the right move.

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