Oscar Predictions: Will “Power of the Dog” Win?

Days after the 94th Academy Awards, The Associated Press film critics Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle share their predictions for a ceremony where several categories are in the air.

The Oscars will be presented on March 27 in Los Angeles and the ceremony will be broadcast live on ABC.

FILM

The nominees: “Belfast”; “CODA” (“CODA: Signs of the Heart”); “Don't Look Up”; “Doraibu mai kâ” (“Drive My Car”); “Dune” (“Dune”); “King Richard” (“King Richard: A Winning Family”); “Licorice Pizza”; “Nightmare Alley” (“The Alley of Lost Souls”); “The Power of the Dog” (“The Power of the Dog”); “West Side Story” (“Love without barriers”).

BAHR: At this point it really feels like the award will go to “The Power of the Dog”. It is a safe choice and at the same time a revolutionary film because it would be the first film to win for Netflix after years of trying. The previous time a Jane Campion film (and she as a director) was nominated was “The Piano” (“The Piano”) but in 1994 that film barely stood a chance against “Schindler's List” (“Schindler's List”). This time it is his film that has the advantage over Spielberg's, “West Side Story”. And despite this, there is the remote possibility that “CODA” could make its way to the podium as “Little Miss Sunshine” (“Little Miss Sunshine”) or “Green Book” (“Green Book: A Friendship Without Borders”), being a film that makes you feel good, something that is supposed to be “Belfast”.

COYLE: I say that “CODA” will surprise you. The easy bet is Campion's movie. But the triumph of “CODA” at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, where “The Power of the Dog” was not nominated for best cast, suggests that there is a lot of passion for the film, and perhaps an advantage because of its ability to please the audience on the academy ballot. The triumph of either will symbolize the rise of streaming in Hollywood. I would give a service — Netflix or Apple — Hollywood's most prestigious honor for the first time. Perhaps that is the most important thing, perhaps it is a delayed confirmation of what many have known for some time.

ACTRESS

Las nominadas: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye” (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”); Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter” (“La hija oscura”); Penélope Cruz, “Madres paralelas”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos” (“Ser los Ricardo”); Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”.

COYLE: This has been one of the cruelest categories, leaving aside some sensational performances. Lady Gaga, Caitríona Balfe, Jennifer Hudson and my favorite performance of the year, Renate Reinsve in “Verdens verste menneske” (“The worst person in the world”) are just some of the jewels that were snubbed. But surprisingly, a very Oscar-oriented performance of a film released at the beginning of the season, Jessica Chastain as televangelist Tammy Faye, has advanced to favorite status after winning at the SAG. This could be partly because Chastain, who has been nominated three times for the Oscars but has never won, is one of the best actresses in Hollywood, and the time has come to honor her for a film she helped to make. I think she will win, but Olivia Colman, who scores one of her typically brilliant performances in “The Lost Daughter”, could sneak in for her second Academy Award.

BAHR: Chastain should have won several Oscars by this point, and not necessarily for the films for which she was nominated, “The Help” (“Crossed Stories”) and “Zero Dark Thirty” (“The Darkest Night”). Despite how unlikely it is for a film that has major pain points, such as turning a blind eye to the fact that Tammy Faye was also complicit in fraud, the tide has changed in its favor and will probably win. I still think there is a small chance that Kristen Stewart, who has been on a roller coaster after starting the season as the favorite, will win.

ACTOR

Los nominados: Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”; Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick … Boom!”; Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth” (“La tragedia de Macbeth”) ; Will Smith, “King Richard.

BAHR: It's always a bit boring when the categories are sung for months, but it would be a big surprise if Will Smith didn't win his first Oscar for “King Richard”. After giving some revealing interviews Smith moved a little away from the spotlight, let the competition run by itself and despite this it emerged triumphantly. Not only did he achieve a great performance in the film, but his speech at the SAG, in which he was funny, humble and gentle with his co-star Aunjanue Ellis and with the real Venus and Serena Williams, was also a good reminder of the power of his stellar charisma. This is such a safe and respectable group, that it would have been fun to add some Simon Rex from “Red Rocket” to put some chaos.

COYLE: Smith will share too much of his journey to the Oscar, a well-deserved triumph for one of the most insanely charming stars in cinema. Smith could have already won the Oscar for Best Actor for “Ali”, if it weren't for that year Denzel had a titanic performance with “Training Day”. This time it's Smith's turn. If I could add anyone in this category it would be Adam Driver in “Annette”. Surely he would have won the prize for the most devastating and fierce musical performance with a baby doll, but that is not an Oscar category.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Las nominadas: Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”; Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”; Judi Dench, “Belfast”; Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”; Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard.”

COYLE: Thanks to his impressive performance in “West Side Story” DeBose has been assured of this category all season. And it's hard not to be moved by historical symmetry. Sixty years ago Rita Moreno won for the same role, Anita, in 1961's “West Side Story”, becoming the first Latina to win an Oscar. We'll see if DeBose has a speech as short as Moreno: “I can't believe it, for God's sake! I leave you with that.” However, it was a crime to deny the nomination of Kathryn Hunter for her multiple witches in “Macbeth”.

BAHR: I was ready for Kirsten Dunst to finally have her moment on the podium, but Kiki's prize will have to wait. At least he got a nomination. And DeBose should definitely have a tremendous speech prepared. Do you think he'll take Moreno as his companion? Perhaps she will again wear the gold and black dress that Moreno wore famously in 1962 and repeated in 2018.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Los nominados: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”; Troy Kotsur, “CODA”; Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”; J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”; Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog.”

BAHR: Among many first-time nominees, other than J.K. Simmons, who previously won for “Whiplash” (“Whiplash: Music and Obsession”), Troy Kotsur of “CODA” was from breakthrough artist to favorite in recent months, winning the SAG, the British Academy BAFTA and the Critics Choice. He will surely continue his run at the Oscars. Support for Kotsur and “CODA” has recently become increasingly enthusiastic and would be a historic triumph. The 53-year-old actor is the first deaf man to be nominated for an acting award. I would also have liked to see Colman Domingo be recognized by “Zola” or Mike Faist for “West Side Story”.

COYLE: It's a very nice group of actors, but Kotsur has the prize in the stock exchange. I think it will be one of the best moments of the night, not only because of the historical nature of Kotsur's triumph, but because it is a recognition for an actor who has worked hard for a long time and flourished on the Los Angeles stage. However, Hinds was fabulous in “Belfast” and Richard Jenkins in “The Humans” was not nominated despite an excellent performance.

ADDRESS

Los nominados: Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”; Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, “Doraibu mai kâ”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”; Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”; Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story.”

COYLE: Campion has long been the favorite. For the pioneering filmmaker, who three decades ago became the second woman nominated in the category, it is a coronation that has waited a long time. Campion, the first woman to be nominated twice for best direction, will win and cinematographer Ari Wegner will become the first woman to win in the cinematography category — a triumph that should have happened long ago for women behind the camera.

BAHR: Okay, but will Campion thank actor Sam Elliott? (who criticized the film)

DOCUMENTARY

The nominees: “Ascension” (“Ascension”); “Attica”; “Flugt” (“Flee”); “Summer of Soul (Or, When The Revolution Could Not Be Televised)” (“Summer of Soul (... or, when the revolution could not be televised)”; “Writing With Fire”).

BAHR: Although Questlove is much loved by the Academy and its documentary “Summer of Soul”, which he won at the BAFTAs, would deserve to win, “Flugt” possibly has the advantage as it was also nominated in the animated film category. And even though the director of “Attica” Stanley Nelson won the Directors Union award, that is a smaller group than the academy.

COYLE: To quote the band The Roots, the Questlove Oscar “has to be, it has to be reality”. “Flee” is a particularly exquisite film and this could be a close competition. But “Summer of Soul” is perhaps the film that has been most universally adored in the year. Discover lost black history and hold live performances, it is deeply suited for 2021. I can't imagine he loses.

INTERNATIONAL FILM

The nominees: “Doraibu mai kâ”, Japan; “Flugt”, Denmark; “È estata la mano di Dio” (“It was the hand of God”), Italy; “Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom”, Bhutan; “Verdens verste menneske” (“The worst person in the world”), Norway.

COYLE: Ryûsuke Hamaguchi's “Doraibu mai kâ” is not a rarity nominated for best film, which makes it a heavyweight in this category. The competition is tough here, especially for Joachim Trier's adorable film “Verdens verste menneske”. But Hamaguchi's three-hour masterpiece, a profound film about art and dialogue as a means of human connection, should win.

BAHR: “Doraibu mai kâ” definitely has the upper hand. The nominations of the film and the director are likely to help convince more voters to give it a try. One can only imagine how far it would have gone if it had had the campaign budget of some of its competitors in the category of best film.

ANIMATED FILM

The nominees: “Encanto”; “Flugt”; “Luca”; “The Mitchells vs. the Machines” (“The Mitchell Family vs. the Machines”); “Raya and the Last Dragon” (“Raya and the Last Dragon”).

BAHR: “Encanto” is definitely the giant in this category, with the Disney label Lin-Manuel Miranda and a hugely popular song that we're not going to talk about here (no, no, no). And under normal circumstances it would be the easy favorite, but Disney has had some tough weeks, not to mention that the studio has three nominations in the category that could split the votes. In addition to the fact that there is a lot of affection in the industry for “The Mitchells vs the Machines” that won the Annie Award, so I think it could be a (good) surprise.

COYLE: I think “The Mitchells vs the Machines” will take it. “Encanto” might be the favorite, but it's a strange giant. It didn't have much impact on theaters, but when it came to streaming, their songs became a sensation. Some of the voters feel that “Encanto” is great for music, while “The Mitchells vs the Machines” is a better film overall. I think the same way so, come on Academia, do it for the pug Monchi.

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Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle are on Twitter as: http://twitter.com/ldbahr and http://twitter.com/jakecoyleAP