How and when could the COVID-19 pandemic end in Colombia

Cases in Colombia continue to decline, however, the WHO warns about the behavior that the virus has had in recent months.

Una mujer usa un tapabocas en una calle del centro de Cali (Colombia). EFE/Ernesto Guzmán Jr./Archivo

The birth of COVID-19 in the world implies a before and after in the history of today's society, which experienced one of the most atypical moments of recent decades. Each country saw how little by little the virus began to move rapidly, Asia and Europe were the first to feel the ravages of SARS CoV-2 and cases began to increase. In Colombia, the first confirmed case was recorded on March 6, 2020, on the 21st the first death from the virus was confirmed, and on the 24th the country entered mandatory preventive isolation.

Two years have passed since then and society has gradually recovered its normality, however, COVID-19 is still not a topic of the past. The arrival of vaccines against the virus marked a radical change from the measures implemented up to that time. In the country, the National Vaccination Plan officially began on February 17 when Verónica Machado, a nurse and head of the Sincelejo University Hospital, was the first Colombian citizen to be immunized against the virus.

Over the last two years, the country experienced four waves of contagion, the first was recorded in August 2020 exceeding 12,000 cases a day, the second was in January 2021 with more than 15,000 infections per day, six months later came the third wave, which occurred between the months of June and July, the country came to record more than 30 thousand cases per day. With the arrival of the omicron variant, Colombia went through its fourth wave of infections in January 2022, also with more than 30,000 infections per day.

In total, according to the most recent official reports from the Ministry of Health (as of March 17, 2022), a total of 6,078,487 confirmed cases have been recorded, 5,910,525 people recovered from the virus, while 139,391 citizens lost their lives due to COVID-19. There are currently 6,070 active cases in Colombia. With regard to the National Vaccination Plan, 79,222,616 doses, 35,386,553 first doses, 27,981,667 second doses, 6,265,357 single doses and 9,589,039 booster doses have been applied in the country. 34,247,024 people already have the complete schedule.

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This is the question that many people ask themselves, and that is that over time the measures are increasingly flexible in Colombia, such as the non-use of masks in open spaces in cities or municipalities that have more than 70% of the population vaccinated with the complete scheme. However, despite the reduction in cases, the pandemic cannot be ended yet.

It is important to note that, as well as the declaration of emergency, the decision to end the COVID-19 pandemic ultimately depends on the World Health Organization (WHO) through its director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

The WHO has reiterated that it does not currently consider determining the end of the pandemic, despite the fact that in many countries of America and Europe they have reported a significant decrease in infections, so some measures are no longer so drastic and this allows, in some way, normalcy to recover in different societies. This is in contrast to what has happened in Asia in recent weeks, where there was again an increase in cases and deaths from the virus, something that puts the authorities on alert.

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Experts say that if cases fall, it is likely that it will continue to cost the lives of thousands of people a year. Unlike other endemic diseases such as malaria and tuberculosis, COVID-19 remains unpredictable due to the potential that new variants could develop, which could become much more dangerous or contagious, as was the case with omicron, whose arrival in the country caused a fourth wave of mass infections.

For now, health experts from the World Health Organization are debating how and when the COVID-19 pandemic could be declared to end, but this requires studies on the behavior of the virus and how it could, in any way, be considered as endemic.

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