Without an economic plan, there is no reason why inflation should not accelerate.

Inflation has escaped the government. 4.7% in the month of February The 7.5% increase in food and beverage reflects the reason why the President's “Declaration of War” on price increases was announced. The conflict between Ukraine and Russia affects the final figure, and the reality is that monetary and financial imbalances in the country are the true cause of the rise in prices.

In 2020, BCRA funded the government with 7.3% of GDP. At that time, several economists warned that it was dangerous to issue such a large amount of money in the short term and that prices would rise sooner or later. However, between the collapse of economic activity and the increase in preemptive demand, the impact was mitigated in the short term and inflation was only 36.1%.

In 2021, things were different. The government continued to raise funds to the Treasury through issuance, which in this case amounted to 4.6% of GDP, and the resumption of activities and a decrease in demand for funds did its job. Inflation was closed by more than 50%. The problem is not only in numbers, but due to the economic populism that the government created last year to increase the occasional point in legislative elections, the relative price adjustment has been postponed until this year. In other words, in 2022, we will not only adjust inflation for gasoline, tariffs, prepayments, telecommunications, etc. this year, but we will also do things that the government did not want last year.

That is why the monthly inflation is 4.7%, which seems to be lower than in March, as schools rise and regulate price adjustments, as mentioned in the previous paragraph. Therefore, inflation is expected to be closer to 60% than 50% this year.

To proceed with a serious anti-inflation program, it is necessary to reduce the dependence of the Ministry of Finance on BCRA. Without this independence, the credibility of all plans would be compromised. This is what the previous government had to learn when the BCRA, led by Frederick Sturzenegger, strengthened monetary policy by raising interest rates. On the other hand, the fiscal deficit not only did not decrease, but increased. An error that was also evident to economists at the time.

Now, how can this government reduce the tax loophole by about 3.5 points in GDP? Of course, the measures to be taken are not popular. One or more members of the government, especially those involved with the Vice President, are aware of this, and laughter began to be reflected in the vote against the parliamentary agreement.

According to the IMF agreement by Martín Guzman, Argentina will not return to the path of sustained economic growth.The reason is simple. Nowadays, the rules of the game state that there are no rules in the game.One day there will be 31% of the withholding tax, and the next day it will suspend export records to raise the withholding tax by 2 points.One day, the government announces a price check for the products it sells, causing losses to all the products it sells. Therefore, there are no countries that can create jobs regardless of whether they have achieved their goals with the funds. In this regard, an agreement with the Fund is a necessary but not sufficient condition for Argentina to solve the problem.

If there is no change in the rules of the game without structural reforms, Argentina will continue on the path of a permanent economic crisis. The war sentence mentioned by the President smells more than a serious program to tighten price control and new regulations. Once again, today is bread, and tomorrow is hungry.