Without an economic plan, there is no reason why inflation should not accelerate.

。 4.7％。

In 2020, the BCRA provided 7.3% of GDP to the government. At that time, some economists warned that it would be dangerous to issue a huge currency in the short term and that the price would rise sooner or later. However, between the collapse of economic activity and the increase in demand for preventive funds, the impact decreased in the short term, and inflation was only 36.1%.

In 2021, the situation was different: the government continues to raise funds from the Ministry of Finance through issuance, which in this case is equivalent to 4.6% of GDP, and the recovery of economic activity and a decrease in demand for funds played an important role. The inflation rate has been closed by more than 50%. The problem is not only in numbers, but also due to the economic populism adopted by the government last year to increase the score in the legislative elections, relatively the price adjustment has been postponed until this year. That is, by 2022, it will not only adjust inflation for gasoline, tariffs, developed countries, telecommunications, etc. this year, but will also do things that the government did not want last year.

That is why the monthly inflation rate is 4.7%, which seems to be lower than in March due to the increase in the number of schools and the regulated price adjustment (as I said in the previous paragraph), so this year inflation is expected to be 50% instead close to 60%.

To implement a serious anti-inflation plan, it is necessary to reduce the dependence of the Ministry of Finance on BCRA. Without this independence, no plan would be reliable. The whole government would have to learn when Frederick Stursinger's BCRA raised interest rates and strengthened monetary policy. On the other hand, the budget deficit not only decreased, but also added an obvious mistake among economists at the time.

How can this government fill a fiscal loophole of about 3.5% of GDP? Of course, the measures to be taken were not welcome. Some members of the government, especially the Vice President, were aware of this, and the vote on the Congressional Agreement began to reflect laughter.

Despite what Martin Guzmán said in the IMF agreement, Argentina will not return to the path of sustained economic growth. The reason is simple. Today, the rules of the game stipulate that there are no rules. One day a 31% withholding tax occurred, and the next day the export registration was temporarily suspended, resulting in a 2% increase in withholding tax. One day, the government imposed a price control on the products it sells and announced that all products sold were lost. As a result, no country can create jobs, regardless of whether it has achieved the goals of the fund. In this regard, an agreement with the IMF was not a necessary but sufficient condition for Argentina to solve the problem.

Without structural reforms, the rules of the game will not change, and Argentina will continue on the path of a permanent economic crisis. The President's war verdict is more like a smell than a serious plan to tighten price control and new regulations.Again, today's bread, tomorrow is hungry.