In the last six weeks, alternative dollars to strict official exchange control, traded through stocks or bonds, embarked on a path of sharp decline, reaching 18%, to roll back to the values of mid-November.
The collapse of stock dollars stands out even more when one takes into account that, after the legislative elections in November, the Central Bank stopped intervening in this market - it did so by buying bonds with dollars from reserves - to step on the implicit exchange rate.
Today, the “liquidated spot” operates at $188, its lowest price since $184.08 on November 12, 2021, the last round before the mid-term elections, when a defeat of the ruling party was already discounted.
From the January 27 highs, the “spot with liquidation” through Global 30 (GD30C) plummeted 18.6% or 43 pesos, while the MEP dollar with Bonar 30 (AL30D) fell 16.5% or 37 pesos, to 189 pesos. In both cases, they are their lowest prices since November 12, four months ago.
Something similar happened with the free dollar, now offered at 200 pesos, a low since December 21. Since its record of $222.50 in January, the drop was 9.7 percent. And over the course of 2022, the “blue” fell by seven pesos or 3.4 percent.
“Financial dollars are threatening with a respite after the recent sharp decline, fueled by indulged traders seeking to make the most of carry-trade dollar returns, while recognizing the risks of these tactical bets,” explained Gustavo Ber, economist at Estudio Ber.
This downward trend for stock exchange dollars led the foreign exchange market to an infrequent status: buying dollar “savings” in banks is more expensive than doing it through assets with an unrestricted client account. This reversal has not occurred for six months ago, since September 9 of last year.
The collapse of stock dollars was so marked that now the dollar to the public in banks, which averages $189.17 for sale, is more expensive than the MEP, which savers can access without a monthly quota of $200.
The effect in favour of the conclusion of an agreement between the Government and the bMonetary Fund, which disturbs the profile of external debt maturities and, therefore, the need for dollars, was fundamental. Not surprisingly, alternative dollars fell sharply from their all-time highs since last January 28, when President Alberto Fernández announced the agreement with the agency.
On the other hand, many investors decide to part with foreign exchange to switch to pesos and take advantage of the Central Bank-driven rate hike and also the high short-term yields provided by Treasury bonds, which is called “carry trade” in financial jargon.
A report by GMA Capital explained that “the 2022 returns race looks like a sequel to 2021, but with two boosted trends: 1) it is still very complex to beat inflation, and 2) this does not prevent very large dollar results from investments in pesos. Except for Globales and Bonares, the rest of the assets allowed, thanks to the travel in local currency plus the appreciation of the exchange rate (carry trade), to obtain profits of up to 17% in hard currency.”
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