The free dollar is offered this Tuesday at 200 pesos, a low since December 21. Since its record of $222.50 in January, the drop was 9.7 percent. And over the course of 2022, the “blue” fell by seven pesos or 3.4 percent.
The wholesale dollar is offered at $109.30, with an increase of 10 cents to narrow the exchange rate gap to 83% with respect to the “blue” dollar, and to 74% compared to the “cash cash”.
International reserves fell by about $41 million on Monday to $37.222 million.
The Central Bank adds a net positive balance of about USD 556 million for its exchange rate interventions so far in March, after four months with a negative balance for its interventions.
“With an eye on the Senate debate on the agreement with the International Monetary Fund, financial dollars recorded new declines at the beginning of the week,” said analysts from Research for Traders.
Today, the “liquidated spot” operates at $188, its lowest price since $184.08 on November 12, 2021, the last round before the mid-term elections, when a defeat of the ruling party was already discounted.
The Minister of Economy, Martín Guzmán, defended the project on Monday before the Budget and Finance Committee and again stressed that a non-agreement scenario would have undesired effects in exchange rate and inflationary terms.
“According to the IMF, parliamentary approval is a requirement of Argentine legislation. The Fund's agreement would not fall if it was not approved by the Argentine Congress. Unless the agency requires the need for parliamentary approval from a country requesting financial assistance,” they added from Research for Traders.
The Center for the Study of the New Economy (CENE) of the University of Belgrano predicted that the Consumer Price Index for February, to be released by INDEC on Tuesday, March 15, will be 4.2%, even exceeding the value of January, when it had reached 3.9%. CENE's forecast for 2022 inflation is 61 percent.
“Since expenditures depend on past inflation, while income is a function of current inflation, higher inflation is always an instrument to reduce the fiscal deficit in real terms,” said Victor Beker, director of CENE.
In this regard, when analyzing the agreement concluded by the Government with the Fund, the economist indicated that “the main commitment made by the Government is to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit, which, estimated at 3% of GDP in 2021, should be reduced to 2.5% in 2022, 1.9% in 2023 and 0.9% in 2024″.
The Ministry of Economy will bid on Wednesday for Letters and Bonds in pesos about $250 billion, with the intention of covering the remainder of the Boncer TX22 that expires this Friday. Recall that last week the Treasury exchanged almost 55% of the amount issued by TX22, which meant a reduction in March maturities by 293,473 million pesos.
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