12 predictions by Francis Fukuyama on how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will end

Francis Fukuyama, editorial director of American Purpose, a magazine dedicated to political analysis, listed 12 predictions about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine could end and the consequences that Vladimir Putin's drastic - and unjustified - decision taken by Vladimir Putin could end for the Russian people on last February 24. In an article entitled “Preparing for Defeat,” the US political scientist pointed out that the Kremlin's military planning was “incompetent” and predicted that losing is the only way to which troops are led.

Fukuyama clarified that he described the situation on the front lines from a place close to the events: Macedonia. Where he is teaching classes. There, he says, there is more support for Putin than anywhere else in Europe. Below is their list:

1 - “Russia is heading for a total defeat in Ukraine. Russian planning was incompetent and was based on the erroneous assumption that Ukrainians were favorable to Russia and that their army would collapse immediately after an invasion. Obviously, Russian soldiers wore dress uniforms for their victory parade in Kiev instead of additional ammunition and rations. At this time, Putin has committed most of his army to this operation; there are no large reserves of forces he can call to add to the battle. Russian troops are stuck on the outskirts of several Ukrainian cities, where they face enormous supply problems and constant Ukrainian attacks.”

2 - “The collapse of your position could be sudden and catastrophic, rather than slow through a war of attrition. The army in the field will reach a point where it cannot be supplied or withdrawn, and morale will vaporize. This is true at least in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be difficult to maintain if the north collapses.”

3 - “There is no possible diplomatic solution to war before this happens. There is no conceivable compromise that is acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine, given the losses they have suffered at this time.”

4 - “The United Nations Security Council has once again proved its futility. The only useful thing was the vote of the General Assembly, which helps to identify the bad actors or prevaricators of the world.”

5 - “The decisions of the Biden administration not to declare a no-fly zone or not to help transfer Polish MiGs were both good; they have kept their heads at a very emotional moment. It is much better for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russians on their own, depriving Moscow of the excuse that NATO attacked them, as well as avoiding all the obvious possibilities of escalation. Polish MiGs, in particular, would not add much to Ukrainian capabilities. Much more important is the continuous supply of Javelins, Stingers, TB2, medical supplies, communications equipment and information exchange. I guess Ukrainian forces are already being vectorized by NATO intelligence operating from outside Ukraine.”

6 - “The cost that Ukraine is paying is enormous, of course. But the greatest damage is being caused by rockets and artillery, against which neither MiGs nor the no-fly zone can do much. The only thing that will stop the massacre is the defeat of the Russian army on the ground.”

7 - “Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived as a strong man; what does he have to offer once he proves his incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?”

8 - “The invasion has already done enormous damage to populists around the world, who before the attack uniformly expressed their sympathy for Putin. That includes Matteo Salvini, Jair Bolsonaro, Éric Zemmour, Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orbán and, of course, Donald Trump. The politics of war has exposed its openly authoritarian inclinations.”

9 - “The war up to this point has been a good lesson for China. Like Russia, China has created seemingly high-tech military forces in the last decade, but they have no combat experience. The miserable performance of the Russian air forces will probably be reproduced by the Air Forces of the People's Liberation Army, which also have no experience in managing complex air operations. We can hope that the Chinese leaders will not deceive themselves as to their own capabilities as the Russians did in contemplating a future movement against Taiwan.”

10 - “Let us hope that Taiwan itself will awaken to the need to prepare to fight, as the Ukrainians have done, and restore conscription. Let's not be prematurely defeatist.”

11 - “Turkish drones will become best-sellers”.

12 - “A Russian defeat will make possible a 'new birth of freedom', and will bring us out of our mess over the decaying state of world democracy. The spirit of 1989 will live on, thanks to a handful of brave Ukrainians.”

More about the invasion

A few days ago, in an article published in the Financial Times, the author stated that the Russian invasion launched on February 24 represents “a critical turning point” in modern history. Fukuyama considered that behind the aspirations of the Kremlin is the establishment of a new world order that confronts the liberalism that emerged after 1991, after the fall of the Soviet Union.

According to his analysis of the current dramatic situation, Putin made it clear that he seeks to regroup as much of the former Soviet Union as possible, “incorporating Ukraine into Russia and creating a sphere of influence that spans all the Eastern European states that joined NATO since the 1990s.”

This, he said, makes the war being waged on Ukrainian soil a matter of concern for the free world. The brutal attacks of recent days against cities such as Kiev and Kharkiv show “what the consequences of an anti-liberal dictatorship are,” he said.

“Putin's Russia is now clearly seen not as a state with legitimate complaints about NATO's expansion, but as a resentful and revanchist country that seeks to reverse the entire post-1991 European order. Or rather, it is a country with a single leader obsessed with what it believes is a historical injustice that it will try to correct, regardless of the cost to its own people,” Fukuyama analyzed.

Despite Putin's attempts to change the current international order, the political scientist emphasized the strong resistance of Ukrainian troops and the forceful reaction of the West. Responses so firm and forceful that Putin himself probably didn't expect it.

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