Covid Death Rate in U.S. Expected to Dip Further in Next Month

(Bloomberg) -- Weekly coronavirus deaths in the U.S. are forecast to dip in about a month, a refreshing change in the wake of months of increased fatalities.

The U.S. is expected to register about 22,510 Covid deaths in the third week of February, marking a slight decline that would reflect a lowering of the death curve from its steepest point since the beginning of the pandemic.

The estimate is the latest forecast from the University of Massachusetts’ Reich Lab, which is based on models collected in collaboration with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The decline comes as many measures of the pandemic’s trajectory began to show signs of easing in recent days. The country passed the 400,000 cumulative death threshold Tuesday. Average weekly cases, hospitalizations and deaths were all trending down that day, according to Covid Tracking Project data, and only three states reported average cases rising versus a week ago.

The country posted 144,047 Covid-19 cases on Tuesday, Covid Tracking Project data show. At least 402,400 people have died, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

According to Tracking Project data:

• No states reported record cases Tuesday.
• Arizona has the most residents hospitalized with the virus per capita, at 657 per million.
• North Carolina and Arizona had the most new cases per million, though slowed weekend reporting can distort data.