The IOC's Problem Isn't Messaging, It's History -- OpEd

(ATR) This past weekend another group of voters decided that the risk of hosting the Olympic Games is not for them.

The referendum held in the canton of Valais in Switzerland marked the sixth straight time such a vote ended an Olympic Games bid, this time by a 54-46 margin. The lack of support within the potential host city of Sion was even greater.

Dutch sport historian Jurryt van de Vooren shared a graphic showing the rate of success for Olympic referenda this weekend.

55 years of referendum. I made it just before the results of Sion. pic.twitter.com/MkvjslX4h5

Of the last 10 referenda in the last seven years, two have been successful. Sion had previously voted twice, in 1969 and 1997, in support for the Olympics, before this latest defeat.

In wake of the Swiss vote I read a lot of columns from journalists and social media posts suggesting the IOC’s messaging was at fault for the inability to convince a plurality to support the Games.

The IOC’s own statement in the wake of the vote makes this a convincing theory. An IOC spokesperson said "outdated information on the cost of the Games," was why Valais voters said no thank you to Sion 2026.

"The recent fundamental reforms undertaken by the IOC have unfortunately not been taken into consideration," the statement went on to say. "The impact of these reforms is clearly illustrated by the case of the last edition of the Olympic Winter Games, PyeongChang 2018, for which this week a multi-million dollar surplus was announced."

Messaging can make or break political races, which Olympic referendums have largely become. Voters had been asked to support a $102 million investment by the Valais government for Games related projects. After the vote people in Switzerland contacted me on Twitter to share grievances I think are more in line with why voters continue to reject the Games at the ballot box.

"The "abstract" reform Agenda 2020 is not enough to convince," Florian Chappot, a Sion Municipal Conseiller, wrote. "The IOC cannot only accumulate profits but must share the risks with the organizer. The IOC must allow a country and not just a city to sign the contract."

This argument suggests that voters will only support a bid if the IOC assumes the risk.

Currently, the host city contract states that municipalities hosting the Olympics must be on the hook for cost over runs from the Organizing Committee budget. Most recently, Rio organizers needed government funds to balance the books ahead of the Paralympics. The IOC said it increased its contribution to the Rio 2016 organizing committee, but would not be contributing more funds to balance Rio's books.

Concerns over risk were not the only issues on voters’ minds. Voters were asked to approve government funding for Games’ infrastructure projects, which doubled as approval to the project.

"100 [million Swiss Franc estimate] is, outdated," user AlbertC wrote in response to the results of the vote. "With this damned IOC, 100 [million] turns out to be 500 [million] at the end! Great day."

The point remains that while the IOC continues to tout its cost saving mechanisms, there simply is no way to trust initial budgets given for projects related to the Olympics. Valais asked voters to trust its figures, and voters rejected that idea.

For the "New Norm" to be implemented via referendum, voters in areas that are considering hosting the Olympic Games will continue to be asked to take a chance at the ballot box. They would have to approve a leap of faith on new ideas that do not have a full cycle to back it up and show tangible results.

Tokyo 2020 cut costs after its budget was beginning to balloon out of control. Yet the,blowout began when the plan approved at the 2013 IOC Session proved unfeasible and required changes to get back on track.

The election of Beijing as 2022 Olympics host after four other bids dropped out spurred many of the changes outlined in the "New Norm". Staging the 2022 Olympics will require massive government investment in three regions in China. As organizers predict a profitable organizing committee, China’s opaque accounting means we may never truly know the cost of these projects.

The IOC repeated its optimistic messaging after securing Paris and Los Angeles to host the 2024 and 2028 Olympics. However those games are six and 10 years away respectively, and budgets are still being crafted.

Before the referendum I spoke with Michael Heine, Director of the International Center of Olympic Studies at Western Ontario University, who once told me that the IOC was "shaken" by the success of opposition movements in sinking bids via the ballot box. He said he believed the IOC "has adjusted its thinking to the notion that organized opposition will be a permanent aspect of bid processes," leading to its new bidding process.

This may be true, but another referendum failure shows the heart of the matter. For cities around the world the evidence of fiscal irresponsibility from past Olympics is littered across the continents.

The IOC may have changed, but it is easy to see why it hasn’t earned the people’s trust. Talking about improvements to the Olympic product is nice, but the past numbers don’t lie.

Written by Aaron Bauer

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