The Inside Story - Bidding Experts Expect Tough 2020 Olympic Bid Contest

(ATR) International Olympic bid consultants tell Around the Rings the 2020 race will be one of the most fascinating in recent memory as they prepare to ink deals with the six applicant cities.

ATR spoke to five leading bid experts to gauge their opinions on the 2020 bid race that kicked off with the IOC's confirmation of the bid cities on Sept. 2. Giving their views: Andreas Abold; TSE Consulting's managing director Lars Haue-Pedersen; VERO Communications chairman Mike Lee; Jon Tibbs of JTA and Terrence Burns, president of Helios Partners.

In recent weeks, these bid experts have been criss-crossing the globe to speak with the bid cities – Baku, Doha, Istanbul, Madrid, Rome and Tokyo. With vested interests at play, each is guarded in his appraisal of the bid race. But their comments are nonetheless revealing.

After appointing Robert Fasulo as a senior adviser for international relations, Rome is close to choosing a consultant. The decision could come out of a board meeting next week.

With three Muslim nations, two bids from Central Europe and another from Asia, the stage is set for some unique narratives to be unfurled in the nearly two-year long campaigning to vote in Buenos Aires. The fact that the race is being conducted against the backdrop of the ongoing global recession is expected to have significant implications for some bids.

"There are six incredibly different and strong candidates. Each could present a compelling argument for why they should be elected," Jon Tibbs tells ATR.

"The trend for going to new markets but also the need to reconsider Europe again explains why many people are saying that Istanbul will be the dark horse.

"However, this thinking may be too simplistic. There are many complex issues that overlay the bid race, the last of these is the fact that there is a [IOC] presidential election after the bid city has been elected in the same Session."

For Istanbul, the 2020 bid is its fifth attempt to land an Olympics.

Oil-rich Baku and Doha, both bidding for a second time after their 2016 failures, offer new territories and a wealth of recent mega-event sporting experience to the Olympic Movement.

Madrid and Tokyo are also building on their 2016 proposals after being beaten to the line by Rio de Janeiro two years ago.Rome, host of the 1960 Games, previously failed in its quest for the 2004 Olympics.

Andreas Abold describes the six-strong field as "very well balanced".

"I think it is an open race," says the German consultant, who worked with Baku 2016 and aided Turkey's failed bid for the UEFA 2016 European Championships. He was also an advisor to the Australia 2022 World Cup bid.

Abold says that Baku and Doha were well-resourced, while Madrid and Tokyo both performed well in the 2016 race.

Istanbul is the city that has arguably changed the most dramatically in the last decade, according to Abold, bolstering its international reputation thanks to investment in sports facilities and transport infrastructure.

"The IOC at this point in time has no geographical or geopolitical problem to choose Asia, Europe or the Middle East. This is a huge advantage for the bidders," he adds.

"Each country and city has great potential and great needs. They have to prove to the IOC that they are capable. I expect a very interesting bidding phase for the next two years."

After helping the Qatar 2022 World Cup bid over the line, Mike Lee's VERO is tipped to join Doha for the Olympic campaign. He was involved two years ago when the IOC rejected the Gulf state's bid on the grounds that the Games were proposed outside of the traditional July-August window. The decision prompted bid leader Hassan Ali Bin Ali to say the IOC had shut the door on a bid from the Middle East.

For the 2020 race, the IOC agreed to Qatar's September-October Games plan as part of newly introduced prerequisite criteria.

Lee said it's shaping up to be an interesting bidding contest. "A very varied and significant set of applicant cities is a sign of the health of the Games," he tells ATR.

"Every bidding race is different; there are always different external factors. The dynamics of campaigns evolve," he explains.

The IOC has already laid down severe restrictions on promotion during the London Olympics in an effort to cut spending by the bids, as reported exclusively by ATR earlier this month. The policy came out of a 2016 bidding debrief.

Abold believes it's a good move amid the prevailing economic climate. "All bidders are very professional and greatly experienced in bidding so they know where they have to invest and where they can save money," he says.

"There are great opportunities to attend 25 conferences per year and place ads all over the place but that doesn't really help to get votes.

"I think they will focus more on targeted activities. Therefore, the PR and promotional activities will be cut down, which will be good for the whole Olympic Movement."

Lars Haue-Pedersen says the global economic downturn will have a significant impact on the 2020 race compared to the 2016 contest.

He thinks Madrid and Rome will struggle the most to fight off discontent within their own debt-laden countries over millions of dollars being thrown at the bids.

"Japan is not in the same severe financial condition, but it is close. They have one of the biggest deficits in the world," he tells ATR.

Further assessing the applicant cities, he says Azerbaijan is up-and-coming but suggested 2020 may be a bidding campaign too early for Baku.

Haue-Pedersen singles out Doha and Istanbul as the bids to watch, saying they are bidding from a position of strength thanks in part to thriving economies.

"Both are moving forward, both are strong, both are offering something for the first time to the Olympic Movement. The question is then, 'which is the better candidate?'"

Commenting on the implications of the financial recession on the 2020 race, Terrence Burns says: "It will force more financial rigor on these cities, if it hasn't already.

"I think it will force more specific dialogue on how these Games will be held and what will they be spending, what's the return – and do they need it," he adds.

Burns, who worked on Doha's 2016 messaging, speaks of a tougher race than ever before for bid cities because of a more thorough IOC process.

"If you look at the applicant file questionnaire, it's much more in-depth and requests many more specifics than for previous bid cycles," he says.

"What the IOC does very well is continually evolve the process to make sure that cities going for the Games really do understand what it takes to host a Summer Olympics.

"It is complex, it is large and I think the applicant file questionnaire does a very good job of helping the cities understand."

He says the applicant cities seminar on Nov. 3 to 4 in Lausanne will additionally "explain the size, scope and magnitude of what is required".

Burns is poised to sign up with one of the bids in the "next few weeks".

He predicts a "fascinating race for the IOC. "I think it will hear some compelling arguments from all of them," he tells ATR.

With three Muslim nations in the mix, he adds: "It will be interesting to watch the messaging between the cities."

After the November seminar, the cities must send their responses to the IOC questionnaire complete with guarantee letters by Feb. 15.

The IOC Executive Board will select the candidate cities next May.

The vote for the 2020 host city takes place in Buenos Aires on Sept. 7, 2013.

Reported by Mark Bisson