Pandemic Makes Medal Predictions More Difficult

(ATR) The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic should help create more unpredictable results on the fields of play once the postponed Tokyo 2020 finally begins.

Nielsen Gracenote, which released the latest version of its Virtual Medal Table on Wednesday to coincide with 100 days to go before the start of Tokyo Olympics, admits the projection "contains more uncertainty than usual because of the pandemic".

The United States is expected to top the table for a seventh straight Summer Games with 114 total medals, seven fewer than at Rio 2016.

China is predicted to finish second for a third straight time with 85 medals, up from 70 at the last Summer Games.

The Russian Olympic Committee is slotted in third place with 73 medals, though Gracenote said that result is dependent on the medal favorites being among those athletes allowed to compete in Tokyo under the ROC banner.

Japan is expected to enjoy the usual boost from hosting the Games. After a record-breaking 41 medals at the Rio Olympics in 2016, Gracenote currently projects them to improve on that total by over 40 percent to 59 medals and finish in fourth place.

Rounding out the top 10 are the Netherlands, France, Australia, Great Britain, Germany and Italy.

Gracenote uses total medals in determining its table.

The company’s statistical model, based on the most up-to-date individual and team results from key competitions since Rio 2016, has taken a hit because there have been few events held since the pandemic hit in February 2020. While there are still plenty of data points available up until then, the lack of recent events adds to the uncertainty because the company’s algorithm is designed to put more weight on the results of competitions held in the closing months before the Games.

Simon Gleave, head of sports analysis for Nielsen’s Gracenote, tells Around the Rings there are many reasons why the projections for Tokyo are less accurate and all are tied to the pandemic.

"The greater uncertainty is due to a number of factors - a lack of data points in the 17 months leading up to the rescheduled Games start for many sports, the fact that Games is starting a year later so athletes will be a year older, the unknown impact of the pandemic on training and preparation, the effect of having fewer or no spectators in the stadiums and the difference in the way an Olympic Games will be run this time and what effect that will have on the athletes."

Gleave thinks that there could be a few more surprises this time around.

"As usual, our main aim is to be close to the medal table order but there are always some countries who overperform or underperform in comparison to their results leading up to the Games. Given the extenuating circumstances, we can perhaps expect there to be more of these countries."

Click here for the rankings from 11 through 30.

Homepage photo: Tokyo 2020

Written and reported by Gerard Farek

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