OpEd -- South Africa Upturns 2020 Olympic Race

(ATR) The IOC says it still expects a bid from Africa one day, while potential bidders from around the world assess the impact of the decision from South Africa not to bid for the 2020 Olympics.

Although a bid from South Africa was not at all certain for 2020, the experience of hosting the 2010 World Cup made it seem that an Olympic bid was the next step. But the government has chosen to take aim first at poverty and basic services before launching a campaign for the Games, ruling out a run for 2020.

"The decision to bid for the Olympic Games requires not only the support from the sports community but also the full backing of a country's government," says an IOC statement.

"We can only praise the great support South Africa received from the sports movement in its interest in hosting the Games but respect the government's decision not to go forward for social and economic reasons. We look forward to receiving a bid from Africa in the future," says the IOC.

Unspoken in the IOC statement may be the disappointment and apprehension over the possibility that a slim field of candidate cities will apply by the Sep.1 deadline. For the IOC, which benefits from the publicity brought by a varied field of high-profile candidate cities, 2020 could be a race featuring a group of European cities that could be counted on one hand.

For now, Rome’s bid for 2020 is the only one to win the endorsement of its NOC. And with the absence of South Africa in the race, the Italian capital seems to now hold the pole position for 2020.

Madrid could step forward if it wins the backing of the newly elected city council, while St. Petersburg is thinking about a bid. Paris, which had its eyes set on a bid for 2024, the centennial of the first Paris Olympics, could bid for 2020 if the bid from Annecy for the 2018 Winter Olympics is not successful. Once a perennial candidate, Istanbul seems not to care about the Games this time while Budapest and Prague have ruled out bids.

Asia could provide candidates. Maybe.

Conventional wisdom says Tokyo only has a chance to bid for 2020 if South Korea fails to win the 2018 Winter Games. (Last week Tokyo became the lone Japanese city to be under consideration for 2020 when Hiroshima withdrew.)

But while the Japan Olympic Committee is eager to bid, government support of a second consecutive bid is not confirmed. Although re-elected in April, Tokyo Mayor Shintaro Ishihara has yet to push for a new bid. Meanwhile the national government is dealing with an arguably more crucial agenda: taming the nuclear radiation crisis and human devastation wrought by the Sendai earthquake. It remains to be seen whether government is willing to wager that an Olympic Games can be used as a force to rebuild.

India? The Commonwealth Games of 2010 showed India could host a major multi-sport event. But the tortured road to Delhi could be repeated with the preparations for an Olympic Games.

Without South Africa to provide the adventurous candidacy of the 2020 race, it is possible Qatar or Dubai might be emboldened to step forward. Qatar has the 2022 World Cup, something that might cut both ways. Qatar believes it will be the first from the Middle East to host the Olympics, but will that happen prior the World Cup?

Dubai could use the Games as a stimulus to an economy hit by recession. But the emirate hasn’t the same sport experience as Qatar.

So far though, no stirrings from the Gulf region.

For the U.S., 2020 might be an opportunity to overcome past defeats without having to face South Africa. But the U.S. Olympic Committee is unlikely to resolve revenue sharing issues with the IOC – and find a winning city – by September.

South Africa may be the real beneficiary of the decision to delay a bid for the Games. The government must be saluted for putting people priorities ahead of sport spectacle. Some say that South Africa wasn’t ready to bid for 2020, a view mostly taken by European bid leaders who were eager to keep South Africa out of the race. And since the glow of the World Cup has faded, little really has been done to prepare for a 2020 Olympic bid what with a jumbled selection process to select a nominee.

Now South Africa can take the time it needs to get its house in order before a bid.

But that extra time will also make it possible for the U.S. to do the same, for Qatar to get some experience preparing for the World Cup and for Japan to rebuild. Brisbane, Australia could be ready to raise its hand before long, too.

The delay for a South African bid could well open the door for other African cities to seize the day. Morocco, Egypt and Kenya have all made noises about a bid.

All of this could happen by 2015, when the race for 2024 will begin.

If 2020 is shaping up as a ho-hum campaign, the race for 2024 could put some new wind in the sails of the IOC to escape the bid doldrums ahead.

Written by Ed Hula.