Brazil Predicted to Enjoy Record Medal Haul in Rio

(ATR) Preparations for the 2016 Summer Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro may not have gone smoothly but Brazil’s athletes are expected to make their mark once the Games begin.

Gracenote Sports, part of the world’s largest entertainment and sports data company, has just released its monthly Virtual Medal Table with less than 30 days to go before the start of the Games.

If Gracenote's calculations are correct, host country Brazil will enjoy a record haul of 20 medals, with eight of them gold, nine silver and three bronze.

Simon Gleave, head analyst at Gracenote Sports, tells Around the Rings that being the home team does not factor into the total number of medals won but rather gives a boost to the types of medals won.

"Home advantage is based on the idea that the extra adrenaline of performing at home means you produce a better performance. We assume the number of medals has already been seen in the results that they’re producing in the lead up to the Olympic Games."

So while Brazil was expected to win a total of 20 medals, the prediction that 17 of those will be either gold or silver is where the home field advantage comes in.

The July edition of the Virtual Medal Table is the first since the IAAF voted to maintain a November ban on the Russian athletics team on June 17. Prior to that, Russia was looking to take home a total of 68 medals, behind only the United States and China.

Last week, Gleave told ATR that Russia would lose seven medals due to the absence of the athletics team, giving them 61. But that was based on last month’s projections. The newest information has Russia losing even more medals.

The July prediction has Russia with 57 medals, including 20 gold. While the Russians remain in third place in the table, they are well behind the top-placed United States (92 total medals, 41 gold) and China (81 total medals, 31 gold).

Gleave says that no post-Soviet Union Russia team has ever finished with less than 63 total medals.

Besides Brazil, there are other countries projected to have their best ever showings in Rio.

New Zealand is expected to set a new record of 25 medals (seven gold, 11 silver and seven bronze), a 92% improvement over the 2012 London Games.

The Netherlands is expected to reach a new record by winning 26 medals (seven gold, nine silver and 10 bronze), which would surpass the 25 combined medals won in Sydney 2000.

France is predicted to see its best medal count since the 1900 Paris Olympics with 47 medals (12 gold, 17 silver and 18 bronze). France’s 12 gold medals, an increase of one over its London 2012 haul, would be the most the country has won since Sydney 2000.

Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table is based on results in world class events (Olympic Games, World Championships, World Cups or equivalent) from the London Olympics up until now.The results are weighted for the importance of the competition (World Championship results get more credit in the algorithm than World Cup results) and the time since the competition took place (a result from last week gets more credit than a result from three years ago, for example).

If a sport has very few data points or is dominated by a single continent, continental championships are also included in the calculation.For the sports of athletics and swimming, a "virtual" race is also included which is based on the fastest times recorded in the Olympic qualification period from May 2015 until now.

Gracenote’s algorithm produces a rank for each event and gold, silver and bronze medals are allocated to the top three in that rank. All of that information then feeds into the Virtual Medal Table for Rio 2016.

Written by Gerard Farek

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