A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario

Cycling could save cities $25 trillion and 10% of transport CO2 emissions by 2050

The incredible potential of dramatically increasing cycling is captured for the first time in a scientific studycarried out by University of California, Davis (UCD) and the Institute for Transportation and DevelopmentPolicy (ITDP). A Global High Shift Cycling Scenario shows that cycling and e-biking can cut energy use andCO2 emissions of urban transport by up to 10% by 2050 compared to current estimations, while savingsociety trillions of dollars.

The report was commissioned by the Union Cycliste Internationale (UCI), the European Cyclists’ Federation(ECF) and the Bicycle Product Suppliers Association (BPSA).

"This is the first report that quantifies the potential CO2 and cost savings associated with a world-wide shifttoward much greater use of cycling in urban areas," said report co-author Lew Fulton, co-director of theSTEPS Programme within the Institute of Transportation Studies at the UCD. "The estimated impactssurprised me because they are so large. The costs saved in lower energy use and reducing the need for cartravel, new roads, and parking lots through 2050 are substantial."

According to the study, the right mix of investments and public policies can bring bikes and e-bikes to coverup to 14% of urban kilometres by 2050 - ranging from about 25% in the Netherlands and China to about 7%in the U.S. and Canada. The potential is enormous when considering that typically more than half of allurban trips around the world are less than 10 kilometres and can potentially be made by bike.Savings of around $25 trillion could be achieved through obviating the need for new major highways,parking facilities and the maintenance of existing infrastructure to accommodate forecast growth in roadtraffic.

"This is an excellent study; worthy to be used worldwide for getting cycling in all policies across the globe atall levels, from local to international. We need to unlock the potential," said Dr. Bernhard Ensink,Secretary-General of the European Cyclists’ Federation.

"Cycling is a crucial means of transport for millions of people around the world," says Brian Cookson,President of the UCI. "This report demonstrates that, if more governments followed good examples like theNetherlands or Denmark to make their cities better for cycling, we’d see huge benefits from lower carbonemissions, hugely reduced costs in transport infrastructure and potentially safer, healthier places."

"This study shows the profound impact that cycling can have in developing countries like India and China,where much of the infrastructure has yet to be built," according to Jacob Mason, co-author of the study.

"Building cities for cycling will not only lead to cleaner air and safer streets - it will save people andgovernments a substantial amount of money, which can be spent on other things. That's smart urbanpolicy."

Executive summary + infographics

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